2018 New Mexico gubernatorial election

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See also: 2018 United States gubernatorial elections
2018 New Mexico gubernatorial election
← 2014 November 6, 2018 2022 →
  x150px x150px
Nominee Michelle Lujan Grisham Steve Pearce
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate Howie Morales Michelle Garcia Holmes
Popular vote 398,368 298,091
Percentage 57.2% 42.8%
200px
215px
Lujan Grisham:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Pearce:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      50%
     No data
Governor before election

Susana Martinez
Republican

 Elected Governor

Michelle Lujan Grisham
Democratic

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The 2018 New Mexico gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor of New Mexico, concurrently with the election of New Mexico's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various local elections.

Incumbent Republican governor Susana Martinez was term-limited and could not seek a third consecutive term. Following party primaries on June 5, 2018, U.S. Representative Steve Pearce was the Republican nominee and U.S. Representative Michelle Lujan Grisham was the Democratic nominee. Lujan Grisham won the election by a substantial margin, which in fact was a complete and exact reversal of the 2014 gubernatorial results. Her win also signaled a continuation of the pattern of the partisanship of the office changing every two terms, beginning with Gary Johnson's first election in 1994. Furthermore, the pattern of the partisanship changing with each officeholder was continued, a pattern first started after Toney Anaya left office in 1987. Furthermore, the margin between the candidates (57.2% to 42.8%) was the same as the previous election, albeit with the parties switched.

Background

At the presidential level, New Mexico has begun to trend into a Democratic-leaning swing state. It has gone Democratic in all but one presidential election since 1992. The only break in this trend came in 2004, when George W. Bush won it by less than a point. However, in 2008, Barack Obama won the state over John McCain by 15 points and in 2012 by 10 points over Mitt Romney. In 2016, Democrat Hillary Clinton defeated Republican Donald Trump by eight points.

However, in 2010, then-District Attorney of New Mexico's Third Judicial District Susana Martinez won the election, becoming the first US Latina Governor, over Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish, former running mate of two-term Democrat Bill Richardson, by approximately seven points. In 2014, Martinez was re-elected over state Attorney General Gary King by nearly 15 points. It has been described as one of the Democrats' best chances at a pickup, due to Gov. Martinez's unpopularity and because "she's leaving behind a high unemployment rate and struggling education system."[1]

The 2018 primary election results show 116,311 votes for Democratic candidate Michelle Lujan Grisham and a total of 175,182 for all three Democratic candidates while Republican candidate/nominee Steve Pearce received 74,705; note that 23% of New Mexico's registered voters are third party or independents (280,000), who do not vote in the primary election.

Republican primary

Governor

Candidates

Nominated
Declined

Results

Republican primary results[8]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Steve Pearce 74,705 100.0
Total votes 74,705 100.0

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Declared
Withdrew
  • Kelly Zunie, former secretary of the New Mexico Indian Affairs Department[10][11]
Declined

Results

Republican primary results[8]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Michelle Garcia Holmes 67,259 100.0
Total votes 67,259 100.0

Democratic primary

Governor

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Jeff
Apodaca		 Joe
Cervantes		 Michelle
Lujan Grisham		 Other Undecided
Research & Polling, Inc. May 20–24, 2018 444 (LV) ± 4.6% 15% 9% 57% – 19%
GQR Research (D)[upper-alpha 1] February 14–19, 2018 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 13% 6% 72% 2%[lower-alpha 2] 6%
GQR Research (D)[upper-alpha 2] October 12–18, 2017 446 (LV) ± 4.6% 10% 3% 75% 2%[lower-alpha 2] 10%

Results

File:New Mexico gubernatorial Democratic primary, 2018.svg
Results by county:
  Lujan Grisham—70–80%
  Lujan Grisham—60–70%
  Lujan Grisham—50–60%
  Lujan Grisham—40–50%
  Apodaca—40–50%
Democratic primary results[8]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Michelle Lujan Grisham 116,311 66.4
Democratic Jeff Apodaca 38,779 22.2
Democratic Joe Cervantes 20,092 11.5
Total votes 175,182 100.0

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Declared
Withdrew
Declined

Results

File:New Mexico lieutenant gubernatorial Democratic primary, 2018.svg
Results by county:
  Morales—80–90%
  Morales—70–80%
  Morales—60–70%
  Morales—50–60%
  Morales—40–50%
  Morales—<40%
  Tie– Miera/Morales
  Miera—40–50%
  Garrett—40–50%
Democratic primary results[8]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Howie Morales 75,515 47.1
Democratic Rick Miera 51,044 31.8
Democratic Billy Garrett 33,761 21.1
Total votes 160,320 100.0

Libertarian primary

Based on the party's voter registration numbers and presidential nominee Gary Johnson's result in 2016, the Libertarian Party holds major-party status in New Mexico.[43] Under New Mexico law, both gubernatorial and lieutenant governor candidates must receive each at least 230 signatures from registered Libertarian voters to formally receive the nomination and be placed on the ballot as the Libertarian nominees. Both Walsh and Dunn failed to meet that requirement and were not on the ballot.[44]

Governor

Candidates

Declared
  • Bob Walsh, retired mathematician[45]
Declined

Results

Libertarian primary results[8]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Bob Walsh (write-in) 175 100.0
Total votes 175 100.0

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Declared

Results

Libertarian primary results[8]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Robin Dunn (write-in) 177 100.0
Total votes 177 100.0

General election

Endorsements

Debates

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[89] Lean D (flip) October 26, 2018
The Washington Post[90] Lean D (flip) November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[91] Likely D (flip) November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[92] Lean D (flip) November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[93] Lean D (flip) November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[94] Lean D (flip) November 4, 2018
Daily Kos[95] Lean D (flip) November 5, 2018
Fox News[96][lower-alpha 3] Lean D (flip) November 5, 2018
Politico[97] Likely D (flip) November 5, 2018
Governing[98] Lean D (flip) November 5, 2018

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Steve
Pearce (R)		 Michelle Lujan
Grisham (D)		 Undecided
Research Co. November 1–3, 2018 450 (V) ± 4.6% 41% 53% 6%
Research & Polling, Inc. October 26 – November 1, 2018 993 (LV) ± 3.1% 43% 53% 4%
Carroll Strategies October 29, 2018 1,200 (LV) ± 2.8% 45% 51% 4%
Emerson College October 24–26, 2018 936 (LV) ± 3.4% 44% 53% 4%
GQR Research (D)[upper-alpha 1] October 22–26, 2018 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 53% 4%
Pacific Market Research October 19–24, 2018 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 39% 48% 13%
NSON Opinion Strategy (L)[upper-alpha 3] September 20–24, 2018 932 (LV) – 40% 44% 16%
Research & Polling, Inc. September 7–13, 2018 966 (LV) ± 3.1% 43% 50% –
Global Strategy Group (D)[upper-alpha 4] August 27–30, 2018 601 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 52% 5%
GQR Research (D)[upper-alpha 1] August 18–22, 2018 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 52% –
Emerson College August 17–18, 2018 500 (RV) ± 4.6% 40% 42% 18%
The Tarrance Group (R)[upper-alpha 5] April 9–12, 2018 608 (LV) ± 4.1% 45% 47% 8%
The Tarrance Group (R) May 20–23, 2017 605 (RV) ± 4.1% 43% 47% 10%

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Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Steve
Pearce (R)		 Michelle Lujan
Grisham (D)		 Bob
Walsh (L)		 Undecided
NSON Opinion Strategy (L) July 2018 500 (LV) – 37% 44% 7% 11%
SurveyUSA June 19–23, 2018 535 (LV) ± 5.0% 38% 51% 3% 8%
Carroll Strategies June 15–16, 2018 1,199 (LV) ± 2.8% 42% 51% 3% 4%

Results

2018 New Mexico gubernatorial election
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Michelle Lujan Grisham 398,368 57.20% +14.42%
Republican Steve Pearce 298,091 42.80% -14.42%
Total votes 696,459 100.00% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

By county

[99] Michelle Lujan Grisham
Democrat		 Steve Pearce
Republican		 Total
County Votes  % Votes  % Votes
Bernalillo 149,480 62.10% 91,221 37.90% 240,701
Catron 511 27.73% 1,332 72.27% 1,843
Chaves 5,348 32.02% 11,352 67.98% 16,700
Cibola 3,988 55.94% 3,141 44.06% 7,129
Colfax 2,327 49.91% 2,335 50.09% 4,662
Curry 3,106 30.41% 7,107 69.59% 10,213
De Baca 229 28.06% 587 71.94% 816
Doña Ana 36,954 60.64% 23,985 39.36% 60,939
Eddy 4,631 29.29% 11,178 70.71% 15,809
Grant 7,043 59.72% 4,750 40.28% 11,793
Guadalupe 1,021 60.27% 673 39.73% 1,694
Harding 178 37.24% 300 62.76% 478
Hidalgo 785 48.25% 842 51.75% 1,627
Lea 3,086 22.15% 10,845 77.85% 13,931
Lincoln 2,625 33.48% 5,216 66.52% 7,841
Los Alamos 6,005 58.61% 4,240 41.39% 10,245
Luna 2,967 48.30% 3,176 51.70% 6,143
McKinley 13,117 71.46% 5,238 28.54% 18,355
Mora 1,664 71.05% 678 28.95% 2,342
Otero 6,450 37.73% 10,644 62.27% 17,094
Quay 1,144 37.03% 1,945 62.97% 3,089
Rio Arriba 9,352 73.00% 3,459 27.00% 12,811
Roosevelt 1,430 30.74% 3,222 69.26% 4,652
San Juan 13,347 35.78% 23,961 64.22% 37,308
San Miguel 7,001 75.78% 2,238 24.22% 9,239
Sandoval 30,425 55.09% 24,803 44.91% 55,228
Santa Fe 52,692 78.54% 14,394 21.46% 67,086
Sierra 1,880 39.81% 2,843 60.19% 4,723
Socorro 3,596 57.44% 2,664 42.56% 6,260
Taos 11,806 81.46% 2,687 18.54% 14,493
Torrance 2,048 38.17% 3,317 61.83% 5,365
Union 415 28.15% 1,059 71.85% 1,474
Valencia 11,717 48.07% 12,659 51.93% 24,376

By congressional district

Grisham won 2 of 3 congressional districts.[100]

District Pearce Lujan Grisham Representative
1st 39% 61% Michelle Lujan Grisham
Deb Haaland
2nd 53% 47% Steve Pearce
Xochitl Torres Small
3rd 39% 61% Ben Ray Luján

See also

Notes

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Partisan clients

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References

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External links

Official Governor campaign websites
Official Lt. Governor campaign websites
  1. ↑ Phillips, Amber, "The top 10 gubernatorial races of 2018, "The Washington Post", January 6, 2018
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  43. ↑ Press release[permanent dead link]
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  70. ↑ 70.00 70.01 70.02 70.03 70.04 70.05 70.06 70.07 70.08 70.09 70.10 70.11 70.12 70.13 70.14 70.15 70.16 70.17 70.18 70.19 70.20 70.21 70.22 70.23 70.24 70.25 70.26 70.27 70.28 70.29 70.30 70.31 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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  75. ↑ "Statement of candidate Kipp Watson for position of Delegate to the upcoming NM Democratic Statewide Primary" on file with campaign office of Michelle Lujan Grisham for Governor, February 2, 2018.
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