2018 South Dakota gubernatorial election

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South Dakota gubernatorial election, 2018
← 2014 November 6, 2018 2022 →
  Kristi L. Noem 113th Congress.jpg x150px
Nominee Kristi Noem Billie Sutton
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Larry Rhoden Michelle Lavallee
Popular vote 172,706 161,171
Percentage 51.0% 47.6%
250px
County Results

Noem:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

Sutton:      40-50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      90-100%
Governor before election

Dennis Daugaard
Republican

 Elected Governor

Kristi Noem
Republican
Elections in South Dakota
SouthDakota-StateSeal.svg
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The 2018 South Dakota gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor of South Dakota. Incumbent Republican governor Dennis Daugaard was term-limited and could not seek re-election to a third consecutive term.

Republican candidate Kristi Noem won against Democratic candidate Billie Sutton in the closest gubernatorial election in South Dakota since 1986, when Repubican candidate George S. Mickleson (51.8%) defeated Democratic nominee Ralph Lars Herseth (48.2%) with a 152,543 to 141,898 advantage.[1]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Debates

Host
network		 Date Link(s) Participants
Kristi
Noem		 Marty
Jackley
South Dakota Newspaper Association May 5, 2018 [11] Invited Invited

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Kristi
Noem		 Marty
Jackley		 Lora
Hubbel[12]		 Terry
LaFleur[12]		 Undecided
Mason-Dixon May 21–23, 2018 625 ± 4.5% 45% 44% – – 11%
Leverage Public Strategies May 4–7, 2018 350 ± 5.2% 38% 39% – – 24%
Clout Research (R) April 21–23, 2018 815 ± 3.4% 49% 37% – – 14%
Rockbridge Strategy (R) April 4, 2018 500 ± 2.9% 44% 33% – – 23%
Moore Information February 8, 2018 300 ± 6.0% 40% 35% 5% 2% 18%
New Age Consultants (R-LaFleur) November 3, 2017 509 ± 4.4% 22% 24% – 3% 51%

Results

File:SouthDakotaRepublicanGubernatorialPrimary,2018.jpg
Map showing the results of the 2018 Republican Gubernatorial primary in South Dakota by County.
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Kristi Noem 57,437 56.0
Republican Marty Jackley 45,069 44.0
Total votes 102,506 100

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Libertarian Party

Candidates

Declared

Results

Libertarian convention delegate vote results[20]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Kurt Evans 10 62.5
Libertarian C.J. Abernathey 6 37.5
Total votes 16 100

Constitution Party

Following an internal controversy within the Constitution Party of South Dakota over who was the legal party chair, Dan Lederman—individually and in his capacity as chair of the South Dakota Republican Party—sued Republican secretary of state Shantel Krebs to prevent her from certifying any Constitution Party nominees for the general-election ballot. For somewhat complex reasons, state circuit judge Patricia DeVaney ruled in favor of the Republican Party on August 17.[21][22]

G. Matt Johnson and Lora Hubbel—Constitution Party nominees for the state's at-large U.S. House seat and governor respectively—then sued Krebs in federal court on August 29 seeking ballot access for themselves and four other Constitution Party nominees. For various procedural reasons, federal district judge Roberto Lange ruled against the Constitution Party on October 1.[23][24][25]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Independents

Candidates

Declined

General election

Candidates

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[32] Tossup October 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[33] Tilt R November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[34] Lean R November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[35] Tossup October 30, 2018
Daily Kos[36] Lean R October 5, 2018
Fox News[37][lower-alpha 1] Lean R November 5, 2018
Politico[38] Tossup October 30, 2018
Governing[39] Tossup November 5, 2018
The Washington Post[40] Tossup October 16, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[41] Tossup November 1, 2018
Notes
  1. ↑ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Kristi
Noem (R)		 Billie
Sutton (D)		 Kurt
Evans (L)		 Other Undecided
Change Research November 2–4, 2018 851 – 45% 51% 2% – –
Emerson College November 1–4, 2018 514 ± 4.5% 48% 47% – 1% 5%
Mason-Dixon October 29–31, 2018 500 ± 4.5% 47% 44% 1% – 8%
Mason-Dixon October 18–22, 2018 500 ± 4.5% 45% 45% 1% – 9%
ALG Research (D-Sutton) September 20–24, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 42% 45% 3% – 10%
ALG Research (D-Sutton) July 19–25, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 46% 42% – – 13%
ALG Research (D-Sutton) October 4–9, 2017[55] 500 ± 4.4% 53% 40% – – –

Results

South Dakota gubernatorial election, 2018[56]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Kristi Noem 172,706 50.99% -19.48%
Democratic Billie Sutton 161,171 47.58% +22.15%
Libertarian Kurt Evans 4,838 1.43% N/A
Total votes 338,715 100.0% N/A
Republican hold

References

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  11. ↑ https://www.argusleader.com/videos/news/2018/05/05/kristi-noem-marty-jackley-participate-gubernatorial-debate/583617002/
  12. ↑ 12.0 12.1 hypothetical Republican candidate, seeking Constitution Party nomination
  13. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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  21. ↑ 21.0 21.1 21.2 21.3 21.4 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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  44. ↑ 44.0 44.1 44.2 44.3 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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  50. ↑ 50.0 50.1 50.2 50.3 50.4 50.5 50.6 50.7 50.8 50.9 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  51. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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  53. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  54. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  55. ↑ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/governor/south-dakota/
  56. ↑ http://electionresults.sd.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=SWR&map=CTY

External links

Official campaign websites
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