2018 Alaska gubernatorial election

Alaska gubernatorial election, 2018

November 6, 2018

Nominee Mike Dunleavy Mark Begich Party Republican Democratic Running mate Kevin Meyer Debra Call Popular vote 145,631 125,739 Percentage 51.4% 44.4%

Governor before election Bill Walker Independent Elected Governor Mike Dunleavy Republican

The 2018 Alaska gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Alaska. In the primaries for recognized political parties, candidates for Governor and Lieutenant Governor run separately. The winners of each respective primary for Governor and Lieutenant Governor then become a joint ticket in the general election for their political party.

Independent candidates for Governor and Lieutenant Governor may form a ticket that will appear on the general election ballot, provided that both candidates on the ticket collect enough valid petition signatures, as mandated by the Alaska Division of Elections.

Democratic-Libertarian-Independence primary

Candidates from the Alaska Democratic Party, Alaska Libertarian Party and Alaskan Independence Party appear on the same ballot, with the highest-placed candidate from each party receiving that party's nomination. In October 2017 the AKDP sued for the right to allow non-Democrats to compete for and win the Democratic nomination, which was ultimately decided in their favor in April 2018. This move was widely thought to benefit incumbent Gov. Bill Walker, to foreclose the possibility of a Democratic nominee splitting the vote with Walker against a Republican nominee. However, with the entry of former Senator Mark Begich into the race, Walker withdrew from the Democratic primary and forged ahead with a fully independent bid for reelection.

Governor

Declared

• Mark Begich (Democratic), former U.S. Senator
• William S. "Billy" Toien (Libertarian), Libertarian candidate for Alaska Governor in 2010

Results

File:2018 AK gubernatorial ADL primary.svg

Results by State House district:

  Begich—80–90%

  Begich—70–80%

  Begich—60–70%

Democratic-Libertarian-Independence primary results
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Mark Begich	33,451	85.3
	Libertarian	William Toien	5,790	14.8
Total votes			39,241	100.0

Lieutenant Governor

Declared

• Debra Call (Democratic), Cook Inlet Tribal Council Board of Directors Representative

Withdrawn

• Edgar Blatchford (Democratic), former mayor of Seward

Results

File:2018 AK Lt. gubernatorial ADL primary.svg

Results by State House district:

  Call—80–90%

  Call—70–80%

  Call—60–70%

Democratic-Libertarian-Independence primary results
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Debra Call	34,291	100.0
Total votes			34,291	100.0

Republican primary

Governor

Nominated

• Mike J. Dunleavy, former State Senator

Eliminated in primary

• Dorian Colbry
• Thomas A. "Tom" Gordon
• Gerald Heikes, perennial candidate
• Merica Hlatcu
• Michael Sheldon
• Mead Treadwell, former Lieutenant Governor

Withdrawn

• Mike Chenault, State Representative and former Speaker of the Alaska House of Representatives
• Scott Hawkins, businessman

Declined

• Bill Walker, incumbent Independent Governor (running for re-election as an Independent)
• Robert Gillam, businessman
• Loren Leman, former Lieutenant Governor
• Anna MacKinnon, State Senator (endorsed Mike Dunleavy)
• Joe Miller, former magistrate judge and perennial candidate
• Sean Parnell, former Governor of Alaska (endorsed Mike Dunleavy)
• Peter Micciche, State Senator (running for re-election to State Senate)
• Dan Sullivan, former Mayor of Anchorage and nominee for Lieutenant Governor in 2014 (endorsed Mike Dunleavy)

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Mike Dunleavy	Scott Hawkins	Mead Treadwell	Other	Undecided
Dittman Research (R-Dunleavy for Alaska)	June 5–7, 2018	400	± 4.9%	46%	7%	19%	3%	25%

Results

File:2018 AK gubernatorial Republican primary.svg

Results by State House district:

  Dunleavy—80–90%

  Dunleavy—70–80%

  Dunleavy—60–70%

  Dunleavy—50–60%

  Dunleavy—40–50%

  Dunleavy—30–40%

  Treadwell—40–50%

Republican primary results
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Mike Dunleavy	43,802	61.5
	Republican	Mead Treadwell	22,780	32.0
	Republican	Michael Sheldon	1,640	2.3
	Republican	Merica Hlatcu	1,064	1.5
	Republican	Thomas Gordon	884	1.4
	Republican	Gerald Heikes	499	0.7
	Republican	Darin Colbry	416	0.6
Total votes			71,195	100.0

Lieutenant Governor

Declared

• Lynn Gattis, former State Representative and candidate for the State Senate in 2016
• Edie Grunwald, retired Air Force colonel and former human resources director for the Alaska National Guard
• Sharon Jackson, activist and former congressional staffer
• Kevin Meyer, State Senator and former President of the Alaska Senate
• Gary Stevens, State Senator
• Stephen Wright, Air Force veteran

Declined

• David Wilson, State Senator
• Glen Thompson, Ketchikan Gateway Borough Assemblyman

Results

File:2018 AK Lt. Gubernatorial Republican primary.svg

Results by State House district:

  Meyer—50–60%

  Meyer—40–50%

  Meyer—30–40%

  Meyer—<30%

  Grunwald—40–50%

  Grunwald—30–40%

  Grunwald—<30%

  Stevens—50–60%

  Stevens—<30%

  Jackson—<30%

Republican primary results
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Kevin Meyer	23,838	35.8
	Republican	Edie Grunwald	18,097	27.1
	Republican	Gary Stevens	8,123	12.2
	Republican	Lynn Gattis	6,156	10.4
	Republican	Sharon Jackson	5,394	8.1
	Republican	Stephen Wright	4,321	6.5
Total votes			66,671	100.0

Independents

Governor

Withdrew

• Bill Walker (Independent), incumbent Governor

Lieutenant Governor

Withdrew

• Byron Mallott (Democratic), incumbent Lieutenant Governor until October 16
• Valerie Davidson (Independent), incumbent Lieutenant Governor since October 16

General election

Campaign

Independent candidate and incumbent Governor Bill Walker announced on October 19 that he was suspending his campaign and endorsing Mark Begich, three days after Walker's running mate and incumbent Lieutenant Governor Byron Mallott resigned from office (and amid low polling numbers just three weeks before election day). However, Walker and Mallott still remained on the ballot as the deadline to withdraw was on September 4.

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report	Lean R	October 26, 2018
Inside Elections	Tilt R	November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean R	November 5, 2018
Daily Kos	Lean R	November 5, 2018
Fox News	Tossup	November 5, 2018
Politico	Lean R	November 5, 2018
Governing	Tossup	November 5, 2018
The Washington Post	Lean R	November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight	Lean R	November 5, 2018

Endorsements

Mark Begich (D)

Statewide and local politicians Tony Knowles, former Governor of Alaska and former Mayor of Anchorage Bill Walker, incumbent Governor Individuals Bella Hammond, former First Lady of Alaska Labor unions Alaska AFL-CIO National Education Association - Alaska Affliate Organizations Planned Parenthood Action Fund The Alaska Center Alaskans Together for Equality Anchorage Police Department Employees Association

Mike Dunleavy (R)

U.S. Executive Branch officials Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States Federal politicians Dan S. Sullivan, U.S. Senator Lisa Murkowski, U.S. Senator Don Young, U.S. Congressman State and Local politicians Sean Parnell, former Governor of Alaska Mead Treadwell, former Lieutenant Governor of Alaska Craig Richards former Alaska Attorney General Anna MacKinnon, State Senator Dick Randolph, former State Representative Dan Sullivan, former Anchorage Mayor Individuals Joseph Ralston, former Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mao Tosi former NFL Arizona Cardinals defensive back Organizations Sportsmen's Conservation Alliance Alaska Outdoor Council Alaska's Public Safety Employees Association Alaska Forestry Association National Rifle Association Alaska Native Corporation Calista Corporation Arctic Slope Regional Corporation

Bill Walker (I) (withdrew)
Organizations The Centrist Project Alaska AFL-CIO NEA-Alaska

Polling

with Bill Walker (campaign suspended), Mike Dunleavy, and Mark Begich

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bill Walker (I)	Mike Dunleavy (R)	Mark Begich (D)	Billy Toien (L)	Other	Undecided
Alaska Survey Research	October 26–29, 2018	500	± 4.4%	8%	43%	42%	3%	–	4%
Alaska Survey Research	October 19–22, 2018	500	± 4.4%	5%	48%	44%	–	–	3%
Alaska Survey Research	October 12–14, 2018	500	± 4.4%	27%	43%	26%	–	–	4%
Public Policy Polling (D)	October 11–12, 2018	645	–	24%	43%	23%	–	–	9%
Alaska Survey Research	October 1–6, 2018	500	± 4.4%	27%	47%	23%	–	–	4%
Alaska Survey Research	September 21–25, 2018	500	± 4.4%	23%	44%	29%	–	–	4%
Harstad Strategic Research	August 13–16, 2018	602	± 4.0%	26%	36%	24%	–	2%	12%
Patinkin Research Strategies (I-Walker)	June 22–28, 2018	800	± 3.4%	28%	36%	22%	–	–	15%
Harstad Strategic Research (D)	June 21–26, 2018	602	± 4.0%	28%	32%	28%	–	–	12%
Alaska Survey Research	June 15–21, 2018	654	± 3.8%	23%	38%	33%	–	–	6%

with Mark Begich and Mike Dunleavy

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Mark Begich (D)	Mike Dunleavy (R)	Undecided
Alaska Survey Research	October 12–14, 2018	500	± 4.4%	45%	52%	4%
Alaska Survey Research	October 1–6, 2018	500	± 4.4%	41%	55%	5%
Alaska Survey Research	September 21–25, 2018	500	± 4.4%	47%	50%	3%
Harstad Strategic Research	August 13–16, 2018	602	± 4.0%	46%	44%	–
Harstad Strategic Research (D)	June 21–26, 2018	602	± 4.0%	50%	41%	9%
Alaska Survey Research	March 25–29, 2018	761	± 3.6%	53%	42%	5%

Results

Alaska gubernatorial election, 2018

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Mike Dunleavy	145,631	51.44%	+5.56%
	Democratic	Mark Begich	125,739	44.41%	N/A
	Independent	Bill Walker (incumbent) (withdrawn)	5,757	2.03%	-46.07%
	Libertarian	William Toien	5,402	1.91%	-1.30%
	n/a	Write-ins	605	0.21%	-0.11%
Total votes			283,134	100.0%	N/A
	Republican gain from Independent

External links

• Candidates at Vote Smart
• Candidates at Ballotpedia

Official gubernatorial campaign websites

• Mark Begich (D) for Governor
• Mike Dunleavy (R) for Governor

Official lieutenant gubernatorial campaign websites

• Kevin Meyer (R) for Lieutenant Governor

Alaska Division of Elections

• Unofficial Election Results - Nov. 2018