2018 Michigan gubernatorial election

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Michigan gubernatorial election, 2018

← 2014 November 6, 2018 2022 →
Turnout 4,239,807
  150x150px x150px
Nominee Gretchen Whitmer Bill Schuette
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate Garlin Gilchrist Lisa Posthumus Lyons
Popular vote 2,266,193 1,859,534
Percentage 53.3% 43.8%

250px
County Results
Whitmer:      40-50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Schuette:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

Governor before election

Rick Snyder
Republican

Elected Governor

Gretchen Whitmer
Democratic

The Michigan gubernatorial election of 2018 took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next Governor of Michigan, concurrently with the election of Michigan's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Republican Governor Rick Snyder was term-limited and was unable to seek a third term in office.[1] The filing deadline was April 24, 2018. The Republican, Democratic and Libertarian parties chose their nominees in a partisan primary on August 7, 2018.[2] 2018 is the first year for the Libertarian Party to hold a gubernatorial primary alongside the two other major parties in the state of Michigan.[3] The Working Class Party, U.S. Taxpayers Party, Green Party and Natural Law Party chose their nominees at state party conventions.[4]

Democrat Gretchen Whitmer was elected with 53.3% of the vote.[5]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements

Debates

Host
network
Date Link(s) Participants
Bill
Schuette
Patrick
Colbeck
Brian
Calley
Jim
Hines
WOOD-TV May 9, 2018 [42] Invited Invited Invited Invited
WDIV-TV June 28, 2018 Invited Invited Invited Invited

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Brian
Calley
Patrick
Colbeck
Jim
Hines
Bill
Schuette
Other Undecided
Mitchell Research July 30, 2018 413 ± 5.0% 18% 9% 10% 40% 23%
EPIC-MRA July 21–22, 2018 1,045 ± 3.1% 24% 11% 8% 42% 15%
Emerson College July 19–21, 2018 202 ± 7.3% 13% 7% 9% 35% 36%
Marist College July 15–19, 2018 337 ± 6.3% 26% 11% 33% 1% 30%
JMC Analytics July 5–12, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 17% 10% 4% 25% 45%
Target-Insyght June 24–26, 2018 400 ± 5.0% 16% 8% 4% 45% 21%
NMB Research (R-Better Jobs PAC) June 18–21, 2018 23% 45% 29%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Schuette) May 22–24, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 19% 6% 1% 42%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Schuette) April 29 – May 1, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 20% 6% 2% 42%
Glengariff Group April 19–21, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 23% 4% 1% 36% 0%[43] 34%
Denno Research April 2–3, 2018 500 ± 4.0% 13% 4% 1% 23% 59%
Strategic National (R) March 19–20, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 18% 7% 3% 27% 45%
Marketing Resource Group March 13–17, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 13% 2% 2% 29% 54%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Schuette) February 10–13, 2018 800 ± 3.4% 15% 5% 2% 42%
Strategic National (R) December 16–17, 2017 600 ± 4.0% 19% 5% 2% 30% 44%
Target-Insyght November 1–6, 2017 400 ± 5.0% 14% <5% <5% 38%
Mitchell Research September 21–24, 2017 400 ± 5.0% 13% 52% 36%
Marketing Resource Group September 13–18, 2017 216 ± 4.0% 13% 3% 3% 33% 48%
Target-Insyght July 25–27, 2017 344 ± 5.4% 14% 4% 1% 42% 39%
Marketing Resource Group May 8–11, 2017 216 ± 4.0% 11% 7% 32% 51%

Results

File:2018 MI gubernatorial GOP primary.svg
Results by county:
Schuette
  •   Schuette—60–70%
  •   Schuette—50–60%
  •   Schuette—40–50%
  •   Schuette—<40%
Calley
  •   Calley—<40%
  •   Calley—40–50%
  •   Calley—50–60%
Republican primary results[44]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Bill Schuette 501,959 50.7
Republican Brian Calley 249,185 25.2
Republican Patrick Colbeck 129,646 13.1
Republican Jim Hines 108,735 11.0
Total votes 989,525 100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Write-In

  • Bill C. Cobbs, businessman[48]

Declined

Endorsements

Debates

Host
network
Date Participants
Abdul
El-Sayed
Shri
Thanedar
Gretchen
Whitmer
WOOD-TV June 20, 2018 Invited Invited Invited
WDIV-TV July 19, 2018 Invited Invited Invited

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Bill
Cobbs
Abdul
El-Sayed
Shri
Thanedar
Gretchen
Whitmer
Other Undecided
EPIC-MRA July 21–22, 2018 1,054 ± 3.1% 19% 22% 49% 10%
Change Research (D-El-Sayed) July 20–21, 2018 1,503 27% 15% 33% 24%
Emerson College July 19–21, 2018 282 ± 6.4% 12% 17% 39% 31%
Marist College July 15–19, 2018 442 ± 5.5% 22% 27% 31% <1% 20%
Target-Insyght June 24–26, 2018 400 ± 5.0% 17% 19% 40% 2% 22%
Glengariff Group April 20–22, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 3% 7% 30% 26% 35%
Denno Research April 6–7, 2018 500 ± 4.0% 2% 2% 15% 17% 63%
Marketing Resource Group March 13–17, 2018 233 ± 6.4% 3% 10% 21% 18% 48%
Target-Insyght March 6–8, 2018 500 ± 4.5% 4% 6% 20% 34% 3% 33%
EPIC-MRA (D-Thanedar) February 17–22, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 3% 8% 24% 34% 31%
Target-Insyght November 1–6, 2017 400 ± 5.0% 4% 13% 2% 45% 8% 28%
Marketing Resource Group September 13–18, 2017 255 ± 4.0% 8% 4% 3% 27% 58%

Results

File:2018 MI gubernatorial Dem primary.svg
Results by county:
Whitmer
  •   Whitmer—60–70%
  •   Whitmer—50–60%
  •   Whitmer—40–50%
Democratic primary results [44]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Gretchen Whitmer 588,436 52.0
Democratic Abdul El-Sayed 342,179 30.2
Democratic Shri Thanedar 200,645 17.7
Total votes 1,131,447 100.0

Libertarian primary

The Libertarian Party is one of three parties that have a primary in Michigan.[84]

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in Primary

Endorsements

Debates

Host
network
Date Participants
Bill
Gelineau
John
Tatar
WOOD-TV[86] July 15, 2018 Invited Invited
WJBK-TV[87] July 22, 2018 Invited Invited

Results

Libertarian primary results[44]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Bill Gelineau 4,034 57.8
Libertarian John Tatar 2,941 42.2
Total votes 6,975 100.0

Green Convention

The Green Party chose candidates for the 2018 ballot at its state convention on May 5, 2018 at the University of Michigan-Flint.[88]

Candidates

Declared & Nominated

  • Jennifer Kurland, President of the Redford Union School Board[88]

U.S. Taxpayers Party

Candidates

Declared & Nominated

  • Todd Schleiger

Natural Law Party

Candidates

Declared & Nominated

  • Keith Butkovich[89]

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[90] Lean D October 16, 2018
The Washington Post[91] Lean D October 16, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[92] Likely D October 25, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[93] Lean D October 12, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[94] Likely D October 11, 2018
RealClearPolitics[95] Lean D October 12, 2018
Daily Kos[96] Lean D October 5, 2018
Fox News[97][lower-alpha 1] Likely D October 12, 2018
Politico[98] Lean D October 12, 2018
Governing[99] Lean D October 2, 2018
Notes

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Endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Bill
Schuette (R)
Gretchen
Whitmer (D)
Bill
Gelineau (L)
Other Undecided
Mitchell Research November 5, 2018 827 ± 3.4% 41% 48% 5% 6%
Mitchell Research November 4, 2018 701 ± 3.7% 40% 54% 1% 1%
Change Research November 2–4, 2018 880 43% 51% 2% 3%[154]
Research Co. November 1–3, 2018 450 ± 4.6% 43% 47% 1% 9%
Glengariff Group October 25–27, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 38% 50% 2% 2%[155] 9%
Emerson College October 24–26, 2018 822 ± 3.6% 41% 52% 3% 4%
Mitchell Research October 25, 2018 400 ± 5.0% 43% 48% 4% 4%
Target-Insyght October 22–24, 2018 800 ± 3.0% 44% 48% 1% 4%[156] 4%
EPIC-MRA October 18–23, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 41% 46% 3% 3% 7%
Michigan State University October 13–22, 2018 169 39% 47%
ALG Research (D-Whitmer) October 15–21, 2018 906 ± 3.3% 36% 47% 4% 6%[157] 11%
38% 48% 13%
Marketing Resource Group October 14–18, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 36% 50% 2% 4% 7%
ALG Research (D-Whitmer) October 8–14, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 36% 46% 3% 2%[158] 13%
Mitchell Research September 30 – October 7, 2018 654 ± 3.8% 38% 46% 6% 10%
Glengariff Group September 30 – October 2, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 35% 47% 5% 13%
ALG Research (D-Whitmer) September 24–30, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 37% 49% 2% 2%[158] 10%
EPIC-MRA September 21–25, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 37% 45% 2% 5% 11%
Ipsos September 14–24, 2018 1,150 ± 3.0% 39% 52% 4% 6%
Target-Insyght September 10–14, 2018 800 ± 3.0% 41% 50%
Mitchell Research September 12–13, 2018 1,009 ± 3.0% 38% 48% 5% 9%
ALG Research (D-Whitmer) September 8–13, 2018 798 ± 3.5% 38% 45% 3% 3%[158] 11%
Strategic National (R) September 8–9, 2018 1,000 ± 3.1% 39% 49% 12%
Glengariff Group September 5–7, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 36% 50% 2% 4%[159] 10%
Gravis Marketing August 14–16, 2018 647 ± 3.9% 37% 52% 11%
Strategic National (R) August 13–14, 2018 700 ± 3.7% 36% 45% 2% 17%
Emerson College July 19–21, 2018 600 ± 4.3% 36% 43% 9% 12%
Marist College July 15–19, 2018 886 ± 3.9% 38% 47% 1% 14%
Target-Insyght June 24–26, 2018 800 ± 3.0% 37% 42% 20%
NMB Research (R-Better Jobs PAC) June 18–21, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 39% 40% 20%
EPIC-MRA April 30 – May 3, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 38% 43% 19%
Glengariff Group January 16–19, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 33% 40% 25%
Michigan State University September 14, 2017 – January 18, 2018 963 ± 3.2% 35% 41% 24%
EPIC-MRA December 9–13, 2017 600 ± 4.0% 38% 35% 27%
Target-Insyght November 1–6, 2017 1,000 ± 3.6% 40% 41% 19%
EPIC-MRA August 27 – September 1, 2017 600 ± 4.0% 37% 37% 26%

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of August 27, 2018
Candidate (party) Total receipts Total disbursements Cash on hand
Gretchen Whitmer (D) $7,134,218.66 $5,599,850.57 $1,534,368.09
Bill Schuette (R) $6,175,889.09 $4,741,577.63 $1,434,311.46
Bill Gelineau (L) $54,785.88 $51,267.71 $3,518.17
Source: Michigan Department of State[160]

Debates

Two televised debates between Schuette and Whitmer were scheduled. The first debate was held on Friday, October 12 hosted by Grand Rapids television station WOOD-TV.[161][162] That debate mainly concentrated on issues and there were no surprises or major errors from either candidate.[163] The second debate was hosted by Detroit television station WDIV and was held on Wednesday, October 24.[164] The two again clashed on various issues,[165] but Schuette made a blooper when he mixed up Whitmer's name with that of former governor Jennifer Granholm.[166][167]

Campaign

While Whitmer's Democratic primary opponents publicly endorsed Whitmer in the general election,[168] Republican nominee Schuette left the party split after the acrimonious battle with lieutenant governor Calley with outgoing governor Rick Snyder refusing to endorse Schuette.[169][170] Schuette also tried to hide his endorsement by Donald Trump from the primary in the general election.[171] His actions as attorney general also came back to haunt him.[172][173] Whitmer held consistent leads in polls over Schuette over the entire year.

Results

The election was not close with Whitmer winning by about nine points. Schuette performed best in smaller less populated counties while Whitmer ran up huge margins in the major cities, such as Detroit, Ann Arbor, and Lansing. Whitmer also performed well in the Detroit suburbs. Democrats held onto the senate seat that was up for re-election, and picked up the governors mansion, the Secretary of State, and the Attorney General positions.

Michigan gubernatorial election, 2018[5]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Gretchen Whitmer 2,266,193 53.31% +6.45%
Republican Bill Schuette 1,859,534 43.75% -7.17%
style="background-color: Template:Libertarian Party of Michigan/meta/color; width: 5px;" | [[Libertarian Party of Michigan|Template:Libertarian Party of Michigan/meta/shortname]] Bill Gelineau 56,606 1.33% +0.20%
Taxpayers Todd Schleiger 29,219 0.69% +0.08%
Green Jennifer Kurland 28,799 0.68% +0.21%
Natural Law Keith Butkovich 10,202 0.24% N/A
n/a Write-ins 32 0.00% 0.00%
Total votes 4,250,585 100.0% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

References

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External links

Official campaign websites
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  154. Todd Schleiger (U.S. Taxpayers), Jennifer Kurkland (G), and Keith Butkovich (Natural Law) with 1%
  155. Includes Jennifer Kurkland (G), Keith Butkovich (Natural Law), Todd Schleiger (U.S. Taxpayers) with 1%
  156. Todd Schleiger (U.S. Taxpayers) with 2%, Jennifer Kurland (G) with 1%, Keith Butkovich (Natural Law) with 1%
  157. Includes Jennifer Kurland (G) with 2%
  158. 158.0 158.1 158.2 Jennifer Kurland (G)
  159. Includes Jennifer Kurland (G) with 0.8%, Keith Butkovich (NL) with 0.5%, and Todd Schleiger (UST) with 0.5%. https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=822587
  160. Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  161. https://www.woodtv.com/news/elections/schuette-whitmer-to-debate-in-grand-rapids/1445190354
  162. Complete video of debate, October 12, 2018
  163. https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/10/12/whitmer-schuette-spar-grand-rapids-debate/1617151002/
  164. https://www.clickondetroit.com/michigan-elections/local-4-to-host-bill-schuette-gretchen-whitmer-for-gubernatorial-debate-on-oct-24
  165. https://www.mlive.com/news/index.ssf/2018/10/governor_candidates_talk_uia_s.html
  166. https://www.mlive.com/news/index.ssf/2018/10/learn_my_name_whitmer_says_aft.html
  167. Complete video of debate, October 24, 2018
  168. https://wwmt.com/news/state/el-sayed-thanedar-rally-support-for-whitmer
  169. https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/2018/09/06/bill-schuette-rick-snyder-governor-michigan/1210906002/
  170. https://www.metrotimes.com/news-hits/archives/2018/09/20/some-republicans-are-supporting-whitmer-over-schuette
  171. https://www.bridgemi.com/public-sector/bill-schuette-no-longer-touts-trump-ties-presidents-shadow-follows
  172. https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2018/09/20/schuette-lgbt-rights-record-michigan/1367428002/
  173. https://www.metrotimes.com/detroit/bill-schuettes-record-as-attorney-general-should-scare-the-pants-off-you/Content?oid=16630549


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