2018 United States Senate election in Montana

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2018 United States Senate election in Montana
← 2012 November 6, 2018 2024 →
Turnout 70.86%
  x150px x150px
Nominee Jon Tester Matt Rosendale
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 253,876 235,963
Percentage 50.3% 46.8%
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County Results

Tester:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

Rosendale:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
U.S. senator before election

Jon Tester
Democratic

 Elected U.S. Senator

Jon Tester
Democratic
Elections in Montana
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This box:

The 2018 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Montana, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

In spite of the fact that Montana went for Donald Trump by nearly 20 percent two years prior, incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Tester managed to win reelection to a third term against Republican State Auditor Matt Rosendale, who conceded the election to Tester on November 7, 2018.[1] This was the first Senate election in which Tester received a majority of votes cast rather than a simple plurality.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

Endorsements

Results

Democratic primary results[15]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jon Tester (incumbent) 114,948 100%
Total votes 114,948 100%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

  • Ron Murray, businessman and candidate for the state house in 2010[20][21]

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Troy
Downing		 Russell
Fagg		 Al
Olszewski		 Matt
Rosendale		 Other Undecided
WPA Intelligence (R-Club for Growth) April 15–16, 2018 503 ± 4.4% 12% 17% 8% 40% – 23%
WPA Intelligence (R-Rosendale) February 5–7, 2018 401 ± 4.4% 12% 11% 5% 28% 1%[44] –

Results

File:2018 MT US Senate Republican primary.svg
Results by county:
Rosendale
  •   60–70%
  •   50–60%
  •   40–50%
  •   30–40%
  •   <30%
Rosendale/Fagg tie
  •   30–40%
Fagg
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
Olszewski
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
Republican primary results[15]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Matt Rosendale 51,859 33.82%
Republican Russ Fagg 43,465 28.34%
Republican Troy Downing 29,341 19.13%
Republican Al Olszewski 28,681 18.70%
Total votes 153,346 100%

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominated

In October 2018, Breckenridge told a reporter from the Associated Press that he opposed the use of dark money in politics. Breckenridge said that he realistically anticipated only receiving three or four percent of the vote in the general election, and that he endorsed Rosendale's efforts to stop the use of dark money in politics.[46] The Associated Press interpreted Breckenridge's comments as a statement that Breckenridge was dropping out of the race and endorsing Rosendale.[46] Breckenridge later stated that his use of the word "endorse" referred only to stopping the use of dark money in politics, and said he was still running for the Senate.[47][48][49]

Green Party

Although Kelly won the Green Party nomination, a Montana district court judge ruled that Kelly had insufficient signatures to get on the ballot. As a result, Kelly did not appear on the November ballot as the Green Party nominee.[50]

Candidates

Nominee (removed from ballot)

  • Steve Kelly, artist and environmental activist[51]

Eliminated in primary

  • Timothy Adams

Results

File:2018 MT US Senate Green primary.svg
Results by county:
Kelly
  •   100%
  •   >90%
  •   80–90%
  •   70–80%
  •   60–70%
  •   50–60%
  •   40–50%
Kelly/Adams tie
  •   <40%
  •   50%
Adams
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   100%
No votes
  •   No votes
Green primary results[15]
Party Candidate Votes %
Green Steve Kelly 971 61.22%
Green Timothy Adams 615 38.78%
Total votes 1,586 100%

General election

Debates

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[52] Tossup November 1, 2018
Inside Elections[53] Tilt D November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[54] Lean D November 1, 2018
Daily Kos[55] Tossup November 1, 2018
Fox News[56] Lean D November 1, 2018
CNN[57] Lean D November 1, 2018
RealClearPolitics[58] Tossup November 1, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[59] Likely D November 1, 2018

Endorsements

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate (party) Total receipts Total disbursements Cash on hand
Jon Tester (D) $19,499,290 $17,946,600 $1,612,530
Matt Rosendale (R) $5,034,075 $4,515,910 $524,379
Rick Breckenridge (L) - - -
Source: Federal Election Commission[90]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Jon
Tester (D)		 Matt
Rosendale (R)		 Rick
Breckenridge (L)		 Other Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R) November 2–5, 2018 953 ± 3.2% 50% 49% – 1% 0%
HarrisX November 1–5, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 50% 42% – – –
Change Research November 2–4, 2018 879 – 46% 49% 3% – –
HarrisX October 31 – November 4, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 49% 43% – – –
HarrisX October 30 – November 3, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 49% 43% – – –
HarrisX October 29 – November 2, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 50% 42% – – –
HarrisX October 28 – November 1, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 49% 42% – – –
HarrisX October 27–31, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 49% 42% – – –
HarrisX October 24–30, 2018 700 ± 3.7% 48% 40% – – –
Gravis Marketing October 24–26, 2018 782 ± 3.5% 48% 45% – – 7%
University of Montana October 10–18, 2018 533 ± 4.3% 49% 39% 2% – 10%
Montana State University Billings October 8–13, 2018 471 ± 4.5% 47% 38% 3% – 12%
Montana State University Bozeman September 15 – October 6, 2018 2,079 ± 2.2% 46% 43% 3% 2% 7%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) September 28, 2018 594 ± 4.0% 49% 45% – – 6%
Gravis Marketing September 19–22, 2018 710 ± 3.7% 49% 45% – – 6%
Axis Research (R-NRSC) September 17–19, 2018 – ± 4.5% 44% 44% 4% – 8%
AARP/Benenson Strategy Group (D) September 6–16, 2018 950 ± 3.1% 50% 43% – 2% 5%
YouGov September 10–14, 2018 453 – 47% 45% – 3% 5%
University of Montana August 13–31, 2018 466 ± 4.5% 56% 32% 2% – 9%
WPA Intelligence (R-NRSC) August 20–22, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 45% 47% – – 5%
Remington Research (R) July 8–10, 2018 2,581 ± 2.0% 49% 46% – – 5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 2018 974 ± 5.0% 55% 43% – – 3%
Gravis Marketing June 11–13, 2018 469 ± 4.5% 52% 44% – – 4%

Results

United States Senate election in Montana, 2018[91]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Jon Tester (incumbent) 253,876 50.33% +1.75%
Republican Matt Rosendale 235,963 46.78% +1.92%
Libertarian Rick Breckenridge 14,545 2.88% -3.68%
Total votes 504,384 100% N/A
Democratic hold

References

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External links

Official campaign websites
  1. ↑ Rosendale congratulates Sen. Tester on his victory, KULR, November 7, 2018. Retrieved November 8, 2018.
  2. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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  5. ↑ 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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  8. ↑ 8.0 8.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  9. ↑ 9.0 9.1 Warren sent out an email to supporters soliciting donations to Tester.
  10. ↑ 10.0 10.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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  37. ↑ 37.00 37.01 37.02 37.03 37.04 37.05 37.06 37.07 37.08 37.09 37.10 37.11 37.12 37.13 37.14 37.15 37.16 37.17 37.18 37.19 37.20 37.21 37.22 37.23 37.24 37.25 37.26 37.27 37.28 37.29 37.30 37.31 37.32 37.33 37.34 37.35 37.36 37.37 37.38 37.39 37.40 37.41 37.42 37.43 37.44 37.45 37.46 37.47 37.48 37.49 37.50 37.51 37.52 37.53 37.54 37.55 37.56 37.57 37.58 37.59 37.60 37.61 37.62 37.63 37.64 37.65 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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  44. ↑ Ron Murray 1%
  45. ↑ Drake, Phil (March 5, 2018). "Libertarian says he'll enter Montana U.S. Senate race". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved March 5, 2018.
  46. ↑ 46.0 46.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  47. ↑ Doherty, Brian (October 31, 2018). "Despite Donald Trump Jr. Retweet, Libertarian Senate Candidate Rick Breckenridge Did Not Drop Out". Reason.
  48. ↑ Barber, Ellison; O'Reilly, Andrew (November 6, 2018). "Montana Libertarian candidate walks back endorsement of GOP nominee Rosendale in tight Senate race". Fox News.
  49. ↑ https://reason.com/blog/2018/10/31/despite-donald-trump-jr-retweet-libertar
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  61. ↑ https://twitter.com/amyschumer/status/1054523400092352515
  62. ↑ http://www.mtpr.org/post/jeff-bridges-campaigns-jon-tester-bozeman
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  68. ↑ https://www.ncpssm.org/pac/candidates-we-endorse-and-support/
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  78. ↑ https://www.greatfallstribune.com/story/news/2018/10/31/libertarian-withdraws-montana-senate-race/1833577002/
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  80. ↑ https://twitter.com/marklevinshow/status/1057067364603314177
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  91. ↑ http://mtelectionresults.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=FED&map=CTY
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