Queensland state election, 2006

Queensland state election, 2006

9 September 2006 (2006-09-09)
All 89 seats in the Legislative Assembly of Queensland
First party Second party   Leader Peter Beattie Lawrence Springborg Party Labor National/Liberal coalition Leader since 20 February 1996 (1996-02-20) 4 February 2003 Leader's seat Brisbane Central Southern Downs Last election 63 seats 20 seats Seats won 59 seats 25 seats Seat change 4 5 Percentage 46.92% 37.92% Swing 0.09 2.46
Premier before election Peter Beattie Labor Elected Premier Peter Beattie Labor

An election was held in the Australian state of Queensland on 9 September 2006 to elect the 89 members of the state's Legislative Assembly, after being announced by Premier Peter Beattie on 15 August 2006.

The election saw the incumbent Labor government led by Premier Peter Beattie defeat the National-Liberal Coalition led by Lawrence Springborg and Bruce Flegg respectively, and gain a fourth consecutive term in office. Beattie thus became the first Labor Premier of Queensland to win four consecutive elections since William Forgan Smith did so in the 1930s. Had Beattie served out his fourth term, he would have become the second-longest serving Queensland Premier, after Sir Joh Bjelke-Petersen. After the election, Springborg resigned as Opposition Leader, being replaced by Jeff Seeney,

Key dates

Date	Event
15 August 2006	Writs were issued by the Governor to proceed with an election
19 August 2006	Close of electoral rolls
22 August 2006	Close of nominations
9 September 2006	Polling day, between the hours of 8am and 6pm
13 September 2006	Beattie Ministry reconstituted
22 September 2006	Writ returned and results formally declared
10 October 2006	52nd Parliament convened

Results

The election result was disappointing for the Coalition. It failed to make significant gains from Labor, despite the fact that the Government had been in office for eight years and had been mired in a series of scandals in its third term. It also failed to make headway against the Independents which still held many safe rural conservative seats, winning back only Gympie. Recent instability in the Coalition, combined with a poor media performance by inexperienced Liberal leader Dr Bruce Flegg was seen as being responsible for the result. In addition, Premier Peter Beattie remained personally popular. With Labor’s huge majority largely intact, it was seen as being unlikely that the Coalition would be able to win the next election.

Queensland state election, 9 September 2006 Legislative Assembly << 2004 — 2009 >>
Enrolled voters		2,484,479
Votes cast		2,247,728		Turnout	90.47	–0.97
Informal votes		43,657		Informal	2.08	+0.09
Summary of votes by party
Party		Primary votes	%	Swing	Seats	Change
	Labor	1,032,617	46.92	–0.09	59	– 4
	Liberal	442,453	20.10	+1.60	8	+ 3
	National	392,124	17.82	+0.86	17	+ 2
	Greens	175,798	7.99	+1.23	0	± 0
	Family First	41,659	1.89	+1.89	0	± 0
	One Nation	13,207	0.60	–4.28	1	± 0
	Independent	103,022	4.68	–1.15	4	- 1
Total		2,200,880			89
Two-party-preferred
	Labor		55.0
	Liberal		45.0
* The two-party preferred summary is an estimate by Antony Green using a methodology by Malcolm Mackerras.

Mackerras pendulum

The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the election.

"Safe" seats require a swing of more than 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.

LABOR SEATS (59) Marginal Cleveland Phil Weightman ALP 0.5% Chatsworth Chris Bombolas ALP 0.8% Hervey Bay Andrew McNamara ALP 1.8% Indooroopilly Ronan Lee ALP 2.4% Mudgeeraba Dianne Reilly ALP 2.9% Gaven Phil Gray ALP 3.1% Whitsunday Jan Jarratt ALP 4.4% Aspley Bonny Barry ALP 4.6% Barron River Steve Wettenhall ALP 5.1% Broadwater Peta-Kaye Croft ALP 5.2% Springwood Barbara Stone ALP 5.2% Pumicestone Carryn Sullivan ALP 5.4% Redcliffe Lillian van Litsenburg ALP 5.5% Fairly safe Redlands John English ALP 6.9% Keppel Paul Hoolihan ALP 7.2% Glass House Carolyn Male ALP 7.7% Mansfield Phil Reeves ALP 7.7% Ashgrove Kate Jones ALP 8.1% Cairns Desley Boyle ALP 8.1% Burleigh Christine Smith ALP 8.3% Southport Peter Lawlor ALP 9.1% Townsville Mike Reynolds ALP 9.1% Mulgrave Warren Pitt ALP 9.9% Safe Greenslopes Gary Fenlon ALP 10.1% Everton Rod Welford ALP 10.2% Mount Ommaney Julie Attwood ALP 10.2% Kallangur Ken Hayward ALP 10.3% Toowoomba North Kerry Shine ALP 10.4% Mount Coot-tha Andrew Fraser ALP 10.5% Mundingburra Lindy Nelson-Carr ALP 10.5% Murrumba Dean Wells ALP 11.6% Ferny Grove Geoff Wilson ALP 12.1% Mount Isa Betty Kiernan ALP 12.3% Kurwongbah Linda Lavarch ALP 12.4% Mount Gravatt Judy Spence ALP 12.9% Ipswich West Wayne Wendt ALP 13.1% Yeerongpilly Simon Finn ALP 13.8% Stretton Stephen Robertson ALP 14.2% Brisbane Central Peter Beattie ALP 14.8% Stafford Stirling Hinchliffe ALP 14.9% Cook Jason O'Brien ALP 15.1% Sandgate Vicky Darling ALP 15.2% Waterford Evan Moorhead ALP 15.9% Bulimba Pat Purcell ALP 16.2% Capalaba Michael Choi ALP 16.2% Fitzroy Jim Pearce ALP 16.4% Lytton Paul Lucas ALP 16.9% Albert Margaret Keech ALP 17.0% Thuringowa Craig Wallace ALP 17.0% Mackay Tim Mulherin ALP 17.6% Algester Karen Struthers ALP 17.8% Nudgee Neil Roberts ALP 18.3% South Brisbane Anna Bligh ALP 18.4% Rockhampton Robert Schwarten ALP 20.5% Ipswich Rachel Nolan ALP 21.6% Logan John Mickel ALP 23.9% Bundamba Jo-Ann Miller ALP 24.8% Inala Annastacia Palaszczuk ALP 26.3% Woodridge Desley Scott ALP 29.0% NATIONAL/LIBERAL SEATS (25) Marginal Bundaberg Jack Dempsey NAT 0.9% Clayfield Tim Nicholls LIB 1.7% Lockyer Ian Rickuss NAT 1.7% Currumbin Jann Stuckey LIB 2.2% Burdekin Rosemary Menkens NAT 2.4% Robina Ray Stevens LIB 2.5% Hinchinbrook Andrew Cripps NAT 3.7% Caloundra Mark McArdle LIB 4.4% Beaudesert Kev Lingard NAT 4.5% Kawana Steve Dickson LIB 5.7% Fairly safe Noosa Glen Elmes LIB 6.3% v IND Mirani Ted Malone NAT 6.5% Burnett Rob Messenger NAT 7.6% Moggill Bruce Flegg LIB 7.9% Toowoomba South Mike Horan NAT 9.8% Safe Maroochydore Fiona Simpson NAT 10.7% Charters Towers Shane Knuth NAT 11.0% Surfers Paradise John-Paul Langbroek LIB 12.0% Cunningham Stuart Copeland NAT 16.4% Gregory Vaughan Johnson NAT 18.0% Gympie David Gibson NAT 18.2% v IND Darling Downs Ray Hopper NAT 19.1% Southern Downs Lawrence Springborg NAT 20.3% Callide Jeff Seeney NAT 22.3% Warrego Howard Hobbs NAT 23.3% CROSSBENCH SEATS (5) Gladstone Liz Cunningham IND 2.0% v ALP Nanango Dorothy Pratt IND 4.2% v NAT Tablelands Rosa Lee Long ONP 19.8% v ALP Nicklin Peter Wellington IND 25.1% v NAT Maryborough Chris Foley IND 32.7% v ALP

State of the parties before the election

Main article: Candidates of the Queensland state election, 2006

Since April 2006, the ALP held 60 of the 89 seats in the Legislative Assembly, the Coalition 23 seats (16 National and seven Liberal), along with five Independents and one member of the One Nation Party. Thus in order to win an outright majority (45 seats), the Coalition would have needed to win an additional 22 seats from the ALP, the Independents or One Nation, assuming that they retained all of their own seats. This would have required a uniform swing against Labor of approximately 8% (such swings are very rare).

Sitting Labor member for Noosa, Cate Molloy, had resigned from the Labor Party following her disendorsement as a Labor candidate, which in turn followed her repudiation of the state government's plans to build a dam on the Mary River at Traveston. Molloy recontested the seat as an Independent.

Members who did not recontest their seats

A number of members of parliament retired at this election:

• Tom Barton: Waterford, ALP
• Darryl Briskey: Cleveland, ALP
• Dr Lesley Clark: Barron River, ALP
• Nita Cunningham: Bundaberg, ALP
• Jim Fouras: Ashgrove, ALP
• Don Livingstone: Ipswich West, ALP
• Tony McGrady: Mount Isa, ALP
• Gordon Nuttall: Sandgate, ALP
• Henry Palaszczuk: Inala, ALP
• Bob Quinn: Robina, Liberal
• Terry Sullivan: Stafford, ALP
• Marc Rowell: Hinchinbrook, Nationals

Issues

From mid-2005, after the revelation of the Jayant Patel scandal, the issue of health has become a focus of controversy, damaging to the Beattie government. After several inquiries and industrial disputes, a restructure of Queensland Health took place, and the state government is currently lobbying the federal government for more doctor training places in universities for Queensland.

Other issues of importance at the election included environmental management and land clearing, asbestos in state schools, the provision of transportation and infrastructure to rural and regional areas, and the management of South East Queensland's population growth.

Polling

Legislative Assembly opinion polling

	Primary vote					2PP vote
Date	ALP	LIB	NAT	GRN	OTH	ALP	L/NP
2006 election	46.9%	20.1%	17.8%	8.0%	7.2%	55.0%	45.0%
6–7 Sep 2006	48%	21%	17%	4%	10%	55%	45%
25–28 Aug 2006	52%	20%	16%	2%	10%	58%	42%
Jul–Aug 2006	45%	25%	13%	2%	15%	54%	46%
Apr–Jun 2006	41%	26%	13%	4%	16%	52%	48%
Jan–Mar 2006	40%	28%	14%	4%	14%	50%	50%
Oct–Dec 2005	40%	27%	16%	3%	14%	50%	50%
Aug–Sep 2005	41%	26%	16%	4%	13%	50%	50%
Jul–Aug 2005	40%	27%	15%	3%	15%	50%	50%
Apr–Jun 2005	47%	23%	14%	3%	13%	56%	44%
Jan–Mar 2005	46%	27%	11%	5%	11%	55%	45%
Oct–Dec 2004	43%	29%	12%	3%	13%	52%	48%
2004 election	47.0%	18.5%	17.0%	6.7%	10.8%	55.5%	44.5%
4-5 Feb 2004	50%	18%	15%	5%	12%	59%	41%

Labor's high levels of support was maintained until mid-2005 when support for Labor slumped and the Coalition opened a minor lead on primary votes for the first time since 1996. However, this was eventually wiped out as Labor restored a huge lead in polls in the lead up to the election and the Coalition only managed a 0.5% swing. Even though some mid-term polls suggested a swing of up to 6% against Labor, a swing of over 8% was required for Labor to lose its majority.

Campaign

The campaign started unusually with Premier Peter Beattie denying a general election was about to be called, while residents in some Gold Coast electorates received direct mail from the ALP stating that the election had been called for September.

At a press conference on 16 August, Liberal leader Bruce Flegg stated that in the event that the Coalition won government, and the Liberal Party won more seats than the Nationals, Lawrence Springborg would still become Premier. Other Liberal Party MPs such as Michael Caltabiano disagreed, as this ran contrary to the coalition agreement signed between the two parties, which stated that whichever party won the most seats would form government. The ALP used this to attack Coalition stability in media and advertising.

Flegg was subsequently asked to leave a shopping centre in the Redcliffe suburb of Kippa-Ring for failing to obtain permission to do a campaign walkthrough. Flegg later denied that he had in fact been evicted.

On 22 August, Flegg took part in a media conference with Julie Bishop, federal Liberal Minister for Education, where he endorsed a Federal Government plan for the mandatory teaching of Australian history in schools. Responding to questions from journalists, he failed to identify the date of arrival of the Second Fleet (1790), or the person after whom Brisbane was named (noted astronomer and Governor of New South Wales Sir Thomas Brisbane).

Two sad twists of fate impacted the 26-day campaign - on 30 August, opposition leader Lawrence Springborg took temporary leave from the campaign after the sudden death of his father-in-law, and National Party deputy leader Jeff Seeney and Liberal leader Bruce Flegg continued the campaign in his absence. The death of TV personality Steve Irwin ("The Crocodile Hunter") on 4 September in an accident off Port Douglas, Queensland, took the media's focus away from the election in its final week.

Current Treasurer Anna Bligh has stated the coalition's major election promises of wiping out stamp duty within five years, increasing the first home buyers grant by $3,000 and introducing a 10% per litre subsidy on ethanol-blended petrol will cost $2.4 billion and has blown the budget. Lawrence Springborg says all his election promises are costed and affordable, with costings to be released two days before the election. So far these costings have not been released.

On Friday 8 September, the day before the election, Premier Beattie and Opposition Leader Springborg participated in a "great debate" at the Brisbane Convention & Exhibition Centre, moderated by ABC journalist Chris O'Brien.

Although Newspoll and other published polls showed Labor well ahead on predicted two-party-preferred vote, Labor strategists feared that people would vote for the Coalition in a protest vote, expecting Beattie not to lose. They adopted a strategy of denying Labor was in fact ahead. The Roy Morgan poll suggested the Liberal vote had fallen, while the Greens had risen to 8%.

Seats changing hands

Seat	Pre-2006				Swing	Post-2006
	Party		Member	Margin		Margin	Member	Party
Bundaberg		Labor	Nita Cunningham	5.3	-6.3	1.0	Jack Dempsey	National
Chatsworth¶		Liberal	Michael Caltabiano	2.5	-3.3	0.8	Chris Bombolas	Labor
Clayfield		Labor	Liddy Clark	1.2	-2.7	1.5	Tim Nicholls	Liberal
Gaven¶		National	Alex Douglas	3.4	-6.5	3.1	Phil Gray	Labor
Gympie		Independent	Elisa Roberts	10.1	-25.6	15.5	David Gibson	National
Kawana		Labor	Chris Cummins	1.5	-7.3	5.8	Steve Dickson	Liberal
Noosa†		Independent	Cate Molloy	8.7	-9.7	1.0	Glen Elmes	Liberal
Redcliffe¶		Liberal	Terry Rogers	1.3	-6.7	5.4	Lillian van Litsenburg	Labor

^¶The margins and swings in Chatsworth, Gaven and Redcliffe are relative to the by-election results.

^†The margin for Noosa was notionally Labor, but sitting member Cate Molloy became an independent earlier in 2006. The post-election margin is National v. Labor.

See also

• Candidates of the Queensland state election, 2006
• Members of the Queensland Legislative Assembly, 2004–2006
• Members of the Queensland Legislative Assembly, 2006–2009
• Beattie Ministry

External links

• Election analysis by Antony Green of the ABC