2016 United States presidential election in North Carolina

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Main article: 2016 United States presidential election
2016 United States presidential election in North Carolina
← 2012 November 8, 2016 2020 →
Turnout 68.98% Increase[citation needed]
  Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg Hillary Clinton by Gage Skidmore 2.jpg
Nominee Donald Trump Hillary Clinton
Party Republican Democratic
Home state New York New York
Running mate Mike Pence Tim Kaine
Electoral vote 15 0
Popular vote 2,362,631 2,189,316
Percentage 49.83% 46.17%
North Carolina Presidential Election Results 2016.svg
County results
Trump:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Clinton:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

 Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican
File:North Carolina 2016 presidential results by county.png
Results by county showing number of votes by size and candidates by color
File:United States presidential election in North Carolina, 2016.svg
Treemap of the popular vote by county.

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The 2016 United States presidential election in North Carolina was won by Republican nominee Donald Trump on November 8, 2016, with a 3.67% winning margin, as part of the 2016 general election. North Carolina voters chose 15 electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote.

Primary elections

The Democratic, Republican, and Libertarian primaries were on March 15, 2016. In North Carolina, registered members of each party only voted in their party's primary, while voters who were unaffiliated chose any one primary in which to vote.

Democratic primary

File:North Carolina Democratic Presidential Caucuses Election Results by County, 2016.svg
County results of the North Carolina Democratic presidential primary, 2016.
  Hillary Clinton
  Bernie Sanders

Four candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:[1][2]

Polling

According to a WRAL-TV/SurveyUSA poll conducted the week before the primary: "[Hillary] Clinton holds a commanding lead of 57% to 34% among likely Democratic voters over U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont." [3]

Results

Democratic primary results[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Hillary Clinton 616,758 54.59%
Democratic Bernie Sanders 460,434 40.75%
Democratic No Preference 37,200 3.29%
Democratic Others (total) 15,375 1.37%
Total votes 1,129,767 100.00%

Republican primary

File:North Carolina Republican Presidential Caucuses Election Results by County, 2016.svg
Republican primary results by county.
  Donald Trump
  Ted Cruz

Twelve candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:[1][2][5]

Polling

According to a WRAL-TV/SurveyUSA poll conducted the week before the primary: "[Donald] Trump tops U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas 41% to 27% among likely GOP voters. U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and Ohio Gov. John Kasich trail far behind, at 14% and 11%, respectively." [3]

Results

North Carolina Republican primary, March 15, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
America Symbol.svg Donald Trump 462,497 40.23% 29 0 29
Ted Cruz 422,663 36.76% 27 0 27
John Kasich 145,681 12.67% 9 0 9
Marco Rubio 88,923 7.73% 6 0 6
Ben Carson (withdrawn) 11,019 0.96% 1 0 1
No Preference 6,081 0.53% 0 0 0
Jeb Bush (withdrawn) 3,899 0.34% 0 0 0
Mike Huckabee (withdrawn) 3,073 0.27% 0 0 0
Rand Paul (withdrawn) 2,753 0.24% 0 0 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 1,259 0.11% 0 0 0
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) 929 0.08% 0 0 0
Rick Santorum (withdrawn) 663 0.06% 0 0 0
Jim Gilmore (withdrawn) 265 0.02% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 1,149,705 100.00% 72 0 72
Source: The Green Papers

Trump managed to pull off a closer than expected win due to both Cruz and his campaigns performances in different metropolitan areas. Trump was strongest in the Charlotte, Fayetteville and Wilmington areas. Cruz did best in Greensboro, Asheville and the Research Triangle region, where North Carolina's major colleges and capitol of Raleigh are located.[6]

Libertarian primary

North Carolina Libertarian primary, 2016
March 15, 2016 (2016-03-15)
  Garyjohnsonphoto - modified.jpg
Candidate Gary Johnson No Preference
Home state New Mexico n/a
Popular vote 2,414 2,067
Percentage 41.48% 35.52%
  Gray - replace this image male.svg Gray - replace this image female.svg
Candidate John Hale Joy Waymire
Home state Kentucky California
Popular vote 329 268
Percentage 5.65% 4.61%
335px
North Carolina results by county
  Gary Johnson
  No Preference
  Tie

Eleven candidates appeared on the Libertarian presidential primary ballot:[1][2]

  • John David Hale
  • Cecil Ince
  • Gary Johnson
  • Steve Kerbel
  • Darryl W. Perry
  • Austin Petersen
  • Derrick Michael Reid
  • Jack Robinson, Jr.
  • Rhett Smith
  • Joy Waymire
  • Marc Allan Feldman

Results

North Carolina Libertarian presidential primary, March 15, 2016[7]
Candidate Votes Percentage
Gary Johnson 2,414 41.48%
No Preference 2,067 35.52%
John David Hale 329 5.65%
Joy Waymire 268 4.61%
Austin Petersen 189 3.25%
Darryl Perry 118 2.03%
Steve Kerbel 109 1.87%
Derrick Michael Reid 74 1.27%
Cecil Ince 72 1%
Jack Robinson, Jr. 70 1.20%
Marc Allan Feldman 66 1.13%
Rhett Smith 43 0.74%
Total 5,739 100%

General election

Predictions

  1. CNN: Tossup[8]
  2. Cook Political Report: Tossup[9]
  3. Electoral-vote.com: Leans Clinton[10]
  4. NBC: Tossup[11]
  5. RealClearPolitics: Tossup[12]
  6. Sabato's Crystal Ball: Leans Clinton[13]

Polling

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See also: Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2016 § North Carolina

Candidates

In addition to Clinton, Johnson and Trump, Green Party nominee Jill Stein was granted write-in status by the North Carolina State Board of Elections, the only write-in candidate to qualify.[14][15]

Results

Candidate Popular vote Percentage
Donald Trump 2,362,631 49.83%
Hillary Clinton 2,189,316 46.17%
Gary Johnson 130,126 2.74%
Write-in 47,386 1.00%
Jill Stein (write-in) 12,105 0.26%
Total 4,741,564 100.00%
Source: North Carolina State Board of Elections The Green Papers

By county

County[16] Clinton percentage Clinton Votes Trump percentage Trump Votes Johnson percentage Johnson Votes Write-in percentage Write-in Votes Stein percentage Stein Votes Totals
Alamance 41.92% 29,818 54.55% 38,802 2.52% 1,795 0.70% 496 0.30% 216 71,127
Alexander 20.64% 3,756 76.01% 13,833 2.39% 435 0.83% 151 0.13% 23 18,198
Alleghany 24.57% 1,306 71.76% 3,814 2.43% 129 1.24% 66 0.00% 0 5,315
Anson 55.56% 5,859 42.73% 4,506 1.22% 129 0.46% 48 0.03% 3 10,545
Ashe 26.07% 3,500 70.12% 9,413 2.47% 332 1.34% 180 0.00% 0 13,425
Avery 20.48% 1,689 76.35% 6,298 2.01% 166 0.88% 73 0.28% 23 8,249
Beaufort 36.61% 8,764 60.75% 14,543 1.78% 426 0.75% 180 0.10% 25 23,936
Bertie 61.82% 5,778 36.97% 3,456 0.75% 70 0.43% 40 0.03% 3 9,347
Bladen 44.38% 7,021 53.80% 8,511 1.33% 211 0.48% 76 0.00% 0 15,819
Brunswick 34.06% 23,282 62.50% 42,717 2.51% 1,717 0.78% 536 0.14% 96 68,348
Buncombe 54.30% 75,421 40.10% 55,694 3.08% 4,284 1.41% 1,958 1.10% 1,534 138,891
Burke 28.91% 11,251 67.42% 26,238 2.54% 988 0.83% 324 0.31% 119 38,920
Cabarrus 38.08% 35,510 57.69% 53,789 2.99% 2,784 1.04% 972 0.20% 190 93,245
Caldwell 23.20% 8,425 73.30% 26,621 2.34% 849 0.83% 302 0.34% 123 36,320
Camden 25.45% 1,274 70.83% 3,546 2.98% 149 0.58% 29 0.16% 8 5,006
Carteret 26.31% 9,939 70.32% 26,569 2.42% 913 0.74% 278 0.22% 82 37,781
Caswell 43.28% 4,792 54.44% 6,027 1.93% 214 0.26% 29 0.08% 9 11,071
Catawba 29.32% 21,216 66.79% 48,324 2.73% 1,973 0.95% 685 0.21% 153 72,351
Chatham 52.86% 21,065 42.92% 17,105 2.84% 1,130 1.03% 412 0.34% 137 39,849
Cherokee 20.17% 2,860 76.47% 10,844 2.44% 346 0.69% 98 0.23% 33 14,181
Chowan 41.39% 2,992 55.53% 4,014 2.24% 162 0.68% 49 0.15% 11 7,228
Clay 22.75% 1,367 73.83% 4,437 2.38% 143 0.90% 54 0.15% 9 6,010
Cleveland 33.50% 14,961 63.75% 28,474 1.90% 850 0.68% 305 0.17% 75 44,665
Columbus 38.18% 9,053 60.15% 14,264 1.29% 305 0.38% 91 0.00% 0 23,713
Craven 37.52% 17,629 58.99% 27,722 2.57% 1,210 0.81% 380 0.11% 50 46,991
Cumberland 56.16% 71,605 40.21% 51,265 2.65% 3,373 0.85% 1,084 0.14% 179 127,506
Currituck 22.99% 2,913 72.33% 9,163 3.80% 482 0.66% 84 0.21% 27 12,669
Dare 36.81% 7,323 58.43% 11,626 3.47% 690 1.03% 205 0.26% 52 19,896
Davidson 24.19% 18,102 72.56% 54,304 2.48% 1,858 0.65% 484 0.12% 87 74,835
Davie 24.22% 5,270 71.71% 15,602 2.90% 631 0.95% 206 0.22% 47 21,756
Duplin 39.72% 8,283 58.58% 12,217 1.25% 260 0.41% 85 0.05% 11 20,845
Durham 77.67% 121,166 18.15% 28,314 2.56% 3,995 1.28% 1,996 0.34% 535 156,006
Edgecombe 65.19% 16,224 33.20% 8,261 1.14% 284 0.43% 106 0.04% 11 24,886
Forsyth 52.98% 94,185 42.61% 75,751 3.01% 5,358 1.40% 2,492 0.00% 0 177,786
Franklin 42.39% 12,874 53.90% 16,368 2.56% 777 0.97% 296 0.17% 53 30,368
Gaston 32.33% 31,177 64.09% 61,798 2.54% 2,445 0.91% 873 0.14% 138 96,431
Gates 44.23% 2,385 53.30% 2,874 2.00% 108 0.46% 25 0.00% 0 5,392
Graham 18.39% 739 78.82% 3,167 1.77% 71 1.02% 41 0.00% 0 4,018
Granville 47.19% 12,909 49.69% 13,591 2.18% 596 0.79% 215 0.15% 42 27,353
Greene 44.53% 3,605 54.03% 4,374 1.05% 85 0.33% 27 0.05% 4 8,095
Guilford 57.98% 149,248 38.10% 98,062 2.62% 6,754 1.04% 2,667 0.26% 674 257,405
Halifax 62.57% 15,748 35.88% 9,031 1.15% 290 0.39% 98 0.00% 0 25,167
Harnett 36.33% 16,737 59.95% 27,614 2.72% 1,252 0.84% 389 0.16% 73 46,065
Haywood 34.08% 10,473 61.60% 18,929 2.95% 905 0.99% 303 0.38% 117 30,727
Henderson 34.08% 19,827 61.55% 35,807 2.80% 1,626 1.18% 687 0.39% 227 58,174
Hertford 67.84% 6,910 30.42% 3,099 1.31% 133 0.43% 44 0.00% 0 10,186
Hoke 53.35% 9,725 42.57% 7,759 3.17% 577 0.77% 140 0.15% 27 18,184
Hyde 41.88% 965 55.90% 1,288 1.82% 42 0.35% 8 0.04% 1 2,304
Iredell 29.96% 24,734 66.31% 54,754 2.65% 2,185 0.91% 754 0.17% 140 82,567
Jackson 41.15% 7,564 52.80% 9,706 3.99% 734 1.46% 268 0.60% 110 18,382
Johnston 33.17% 28,362 63.59% 54,372 2.74% 2,347 0.37% 314 0.13% 112 85,507
Jones 40.21% 2,065 57.92% 2,974 1.15% 59 0.72% 37 0.00% 0 5,135
Lee 41.74% 10,469 54.66% 13,712 2.73% 684 0.76% 191 0.11% 28 25,084
Lenoir 46.45% 12,091 51.41% 13,381 1.52% 395 0.62% 162 0.00% 0 26,029
Lincoln 24.73% 9,897 71.97% 28,806 2.43% 971 0.76% 305 0.11% 44 40,023
Macon 27.50% 4,876 68.38% 12,127 2.63% 467 1.29% 228 0.20% 36 17,734
Madison 34.84% 3,926 60.19% 6,783 2.98% 336 0.91% 103 1.07% 121 11,269
Martin 48.86% 5,846 49.29% 5,897 1.38% 165 0.39% 47 0.08% 9 11,964
McDowell 23.48% 4,667 73.30% 14,568 1.99% 396 1.15% 229 0.08% 15 19,875
Mecklenburg 62.29% 294,562 32.89% 155,518 3.28% 15,488 1.26% 5,937 0.29% 1,352 472,857
Mitchell 19.71% 1,596 77.59% 6,282 1.70% 138 0.69% 56 0.30% 24 8,096
Montgomery 35.96% 4,150 61.79% 7,130 1.76% 203 0.44% 51 0.05% 6 11,540
Moore 33.54% 16,328 62.62% 30,487 2.78% 1,354 0.96% 468 0.10% 50 48,687
Nash 48.75% 23,235 48.92% 23,318 1.57% 750 0.63% 301 0.13% 60 47,664
New Hanover 45.56% 50,975 49.46% 55,340 3.53% 3,949 1.06% 1,184 0.40% 449 111,897
Northampton 62.39% 6,144 36.37% 3,582 0.94% 93 0.29% 29 0.00% 0 9,848
Onslow 30.65% 17,514 64.97% 37,122 3.37% 1,926 0.84% 481 0.16% 92 57,135
Orange 72.78% 59,923 22.54% 18,557 2.92% 2,404 1.21% 997 0.56% 459 82,340
Pamlico 35.63% 2,448 61.98% 4,258 1.80% 124 0.44% 30 0.15% 10 6,870
Pasquotank 49.54% 8,615 47.04% 8,180 2.54% 442 0.70% 122 0.18% 32 17,391
Pender 33.54% 9,354 63.26% 17,639 2.45% 683 0.56% 157 0.19% 52 27,885
Perquimans 34.57% 2,319 62.27% 4,177 2.42% 162 0.64% 43 0.10% 7 6,708
Person 39.93% 7,832 57.03% 11,185 2.14% 419 0.72% 142 0.18% 36 19,614
Pitt 51.94% 41,824 44.32% 35,691 2.68% 2,162 0.84% 680 0.21% 170 80,527
Polk 34.16% 3,735 61.90% 6,768 2.49% 272 0.98% 107 0.48% 52 10,934
Randolph 20.43% 13,194 76.55% 49,430 2.17% 1,403 0.69% 446 0.16% 102 64,575
Richmond 43.98% 8,501 53.72% 10,383 1.72% 333 0.45% 87 0.12% 24 19,328
Robeson 46.54% 19,016 50.82% 20,762 1.97% 803 0.62% 252 0.06% 25 40,858
Rockingham 33.65% 14,228 63.46% 26,830 2.06% 871 0.70% 294 0.13% 55 42,278
Rowan 30.14% 19,400 66.51% 42,810 2.36% 1,517 0.88% 564 0.12% 78 64,369
Rutherford 24.80% 7,515 72.16% 21,869 2.06% 624 0.86% 261 0.13% 39 30,308
Sampson 40.68% 10,547 57.23% 14,838 1.52% 393 0.58% 150 0.00% 0 25,928
Scotland 52.55% 7,319 44.92% 6,256 1.82% 254 0.52% 73 0.19% 26 13,928
Stanly 23.71% 7,094 73.42% 21,964 2.22% 664 0.56% 169 0.09% 26 29,917
Stokes 20.69% 4,665 75.90% 17,116 2.53% 571 0.77% 173 0.11% 25 22,550
Surry 23.26% 9,005 73.52% 23,671 2.30% 739 0.78% 250 0.15% 48 32,196
Swain 35.86% 2,196 58.24% 3,566 3.92% 240 1.50% 92 0.47% 27 6,123
Transylvania 36.70% 6,558 58.87% 10,520 2.74% 489 1.23% 220 0.46% 82 17,869
Tyrrell 41.40% 720 56.07% 975 1.61% 28 0.63% 11 0.29% 5 1,739
Union 32.48% 34,335 63.10% 66,705 3.15% 3,327 1.11% 1,176 0.15% 163 105,706
Vance 61.22% 12,229 36.70% 7,332 1.47% 294 0.49% 97 0.13% 25 19,977
Wake 57.38% 302,569 37.16% 195,984 3.69% 19,445 1.44% 7,600 0.33% 1,739 527,337
Warren 65.17% 6,419 32.64% 3,215 1.49% 147 0.70% 69 0.00% 0 9,850
Washington 56.93% 3,509 41.60% 2,564 1.05% 65 0.41% 25 0.02% 1 6,164
Watauga 47.15% 14,138 45.68% 13,697 4.46% 1,336 1.80% 539 0.92% 275 29,985
Wayne 42.95% 21,769 54.33% 27,540 1.90% 963 0.76% 383 0.07% 33 50,688
Wilkes 21.21% 6,638 75.89% 23,752 2.07% 647 0.73% 228 0.10% 31 31,296
Wilson 51.56% 19,663 45.97% 17,531 1.75% 667 0.67% 256 0.05% 18 38,135
Yadkin 17.93% 3,160 78.76% 13,880 2.26% 398 0.86% 152 0.19% 34 17,624
Yancey 32.09% 3,196 64.11% 6,385 2.62% 261 0.77% 77 0.41% 41 9,960
Totals 46.17% 2,188,201 49.84% 2,361,942 2.75% 130,099 1.00% 47,438 0.25% 11,612 4,739,292

By congressional district

Trump won 10 of 13 congressional districts.[17]

District Trump Clinton Representative
1st 30% 67% G.K. Butterfield
2nd 54% 42% Renee Ellmers
George Holding
3rd 60% 36% Walter B. Jones
4th 27% 68% David Price
5th 57% 39% Virginia Foxx
6th 56% 41% Mark Walker
7th 57% 39% David Rouzer
8th 56% 41% Richard Hudson
9th 54% 42% Robert Pittenger
10th 60% 36% Patrick T. McHenry
11th 62% 33% Mark Meadows
12th 28% 68% Alma Adams
13th 53% 44% Ted Budd

Counties that swung from Democratic to Republican

Counties that swung from Republican to Democratic

Analysis

Predictions

The following were final 2016 predictions from various organizations for North Carolina as of Election Day.

  1. Los Angeles Times: Leans Clinton[18]
  2. CNN: Tossup[19]
  3. Sabato's Crystal Ball: Leans Clinton[20]
  4. NBC: Tossup[21]
  5. Electoral-vote.com: Leans Clinton[22]
  6. RealClearPolitics: Tossup[23]
  7. Fox News: Tossup[24]
  8. ABC: Tossup[25]

Prior to the 2016 election, North Carolina had been a Republican stronghold since 1968 with the state voting Democratic only once between then and 2008. In 2008, North Carolina voted Democratic for only the second time in 40 years. However, the state returned to the Republicans in 2012 when the party's nominee, Mitt Romney, carried the state. Throughout the 2016 campaign, North Carolina was considered by most a tossup state, the outcome going into election night was heavily debated. The Trump campaign saw winning North Carolina as crucial in order for Trump to win the Electoral College; conversely, the Clinton campaign felt that it was vital for them to win the state in order to secure an Electoral College victory. Both Trump and Clinton campaigned in the state shortly before the general election.[26][27]

Despite winning the state, Trump, in someways, under-performed in comparison to Romney in 2012. Romney won a majority of the vote in 2012 with 50.4% while Trump only managed a plurality of 49.8%. Similarly, Clinton also under-performed in comparison to Obama, with Clinton winning only 46.2% in comparison to Obama's 48.35%. This situation was the result of the spike in votes for third party candidates in the state as 4% of North Carolinians voted for a candidate other than the Democratic and Republican nominees in 2016 as opposed to just 1.26% in 2012.

An increase in turnout in North Carolina allowed both Trump and Clinton to out-perform Romney and Obama in terms of the total votes each candidate received. In 2016 Trump won around 92,000 more votes than Romney did in 2012 while Clinton won around 10,000 more than Obama. Furthermore, Trump also outperformed Romney by winning North Carolina by a greater margin than Romney was able to as Trump won the state over Clinton by 3.7% compared to the 2% margin Romney won over Obama.

Trump's win in North Carolina marked the 9th time the state has voted Republican in the last 10 elections and, therefore, the state continues to lean more Republican at the presidential level.

See also

References

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External links

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