2010 Colombian presidential election

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Colombian presidential election, 2010
← 2006 30 May and 20 June 2010 2014 →
  Juan Manuel Santos Calderón - World Economic Forum on Latin America 2010.jpg 150x170px
Nominee Juan Manuel Santos Antanas Mockus
Party Party of the U Green Party
Home state Bogotá Bogotá
Running mate Angelino Garzón Sergio Fajardo
Popular vote 9,028,943 3,587,975
Percentage 69.1% 27.5%
President before election

Álvaro Uribe
Colombia First

 Elected President

Juan Manuel Santos
Party of the U

Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found. The Colombian presidential election of 2010 took place under a two-round system, with an initial vote held on May 30 and a second poll held three weeks later on June 20.[1] A referendum proposal that would have allowed incumbent President Álvaro Uribe the opportunity to run for a third term was rejected by the Constitutional Court of Colombia in a 7–2 ruling on February 26, 2010.[2] Because no candidate received a majority (more than one-half) of the votes cast in the May 30 poll, the candidates with the two highest vote totals competed in a runoff election on June 20: Juan Manuel Santos of the liberal-conservative Social Party of National Unity which unites supporters of former President Uribe, and Antanas Mockus from the Green Party. Santos won the election with 69% of the votes.

Candidates

Government group

In 2002, Álvaro Uribe of the Colombia First party was elected president with 53.1 per cent of the vote, breaking the two-party system that ruled the country since 1958, with the promise of ending the armed conflict that haunts the country since 1964 by strengthening the Armed Forces.[3] In 2006, he managed to change the Constitution in order to run for a second consecutive term.[3] After a practically mute campaign, Uribe won the election with 62.2 per cent of the vote, followed by Carlos Gaviria of the Alternative Democratic Pole with a distant 22 per cent.[3]

In 2007, Luis Guillermo Giraldo, leader of the pro-Uribe Party of the U, announced he would create the "promoters' committee", a group charged with gathering signatures to call a referendum on whether Uribe should be allowed to run for a third term in office.[3] In September 2009, Congress approved the referendum bill in a late-night voting boycotted by members of the opposition.[3] On February 26, 2010, the Constitutional Court voted against the referendum bill.[3] Immediately after the ruling, former defence minister Juan Manuel Santos confirmed that he would become a presidential candidate.[3] Another Uribist candidate was Germán Vargas Lleras of the Radical Change party.[3] Former Colombian ambassador to the United Kingdom, Noemí Sanín, and former agriculture minister Andrés Felipe Arias, two of the closest Uribe allies, were seeking nomination by the Conservative Party.[3] Sanín was nominated.

Opposition group

Two of the opposition candidates were Rafael Pardo of the Liberal Party and Gustavo Petro of the Alternative Democratic Pole.[3] Álvaro Leyva Durán, a Uribe opponent, was seeking the presidential nomination by the Conservative Party.[3]

On October 2, 2009, the Green Party was officially created.[3] It nominated its presidential candidate on a primary ballot that took place on March 14, 2010, the same day as the legislative election.[3] The contenders were three former Bogotá mayors: Enrique Peñalosa, Antanas Mockus, and Luis Eduardo Garzón. The Greens seek to be a moderate force in what they called "a polarized" political situation, calling themselves "Post-Uribists."[3] Mockus was chosen as their candidate. Former Medellín mayor Sergio Fajardo joined him as his running mate on 5 April 2010, after missing the requirements to become a presidential candidate himself.[4]

Opinion polls

First Round

Date Institute Candidate Undecided
(Ns/Nr)
V. None		 Source
Rafael Pardo Gustavo Petro Germán Vargas Lleras Sergio Fajardo Juan Manuel Santos Antanas Mockus Noemí Sanín Róbinson Devia Jaime Araújo Jairo Calderón
March 24, 2010 Invamer Gallup 5.1% 6.3% 6.2% 6.1% 34.2% 10.4% 23.3% 0% 0% 0% 8.4% [5]
March 26, 2010 Datexco 5.5% 7.1% 6.6% 4.4% 34.1% 8.9% 21.7% 0% 0.2% 0.1% 11.4% [6]
March 27, 2010 Ipsos Napoleón Franco 4% 6% 8% 5% 36% 9% 17% 1% 0% 0% 14% [7]
March 27, 2010 Centro Nacional de Consultoría 3.4% 3.6% 6.5% 3.6% 28.6% 11.3% 21.9% 0% 0% 0% 21.1% [8]
April 8, 2010 Centro Nacional de Consultoría 5% 6% 3% - 37% 22% 20% 0% 0% 0% 7% [9]
April 9, 2010 Datexco 5.2% 3.1% 3% - 29.5% 24.8% 16.4% 0% 0% 0% 17.2% [10]
April 15, 2010 Centro Nacional de Consultoría 4% 4% 2% - 36% 29% 19% 0% 1% 0% 5% [11]
April 16, 2010 Ipsos Napoleón Franco 5% 4% 3% - 30% 20% 12% 1% 5% 5% 15% [12]
April 22, 2010 Centro Nacional de Consultoría 5% 5% 4% - 35% 34% 12% 0% 1% 0% 3% [13]
April 26, 2010 Ipsos Napoleón Franco 3% 5% 3% - 29% 38% 11% 0% 1% 0% 10% [14]
April 28, 2010 Invamer Gallup 5.7% 5.0% 3.6% - 34.2% 31.6% 16.2% 0% 0.1% 0% 3.5% [15]
April 29, 2010 Centro Nacional de Consultoría 3% 5% 4% - 34% 39% 11% 0% 0% 0% 4% [16]
April 30, 2010 Datexco 2.3% 2.9% 3.3% - 26.7% 38.7% 9.8% 0% 0% 0% 16.3% [17]
May 6, 2010 Centro Nacional de Consultoría 3% 5% 5% - 34% 38% 11% 0% 0% 0% 4% [18]
May 7, 2010 Datexco 1.4% 4.2% 3.1% - 25.2% 37.7% 6.7% 0% 0% 0% 21.7% [19]
May 9, 2010 Ipsos Napoleón Franco 4% 4% 3% - 35% 34% 8% 0% 0% 0% 12% [20]
May 13, 2010 Centro Nacional de Consultoría 3% 4% 4% - 38% 36% 9% 0% 0% 0% 6% [21]
May 14, 2010 Datexco 3.1% 7.5% 4.3% - 29.3% 32.8% 5.6% 0% 0.4% 0% 13.8% [22]
May 19, 2010 Invamer Gallup 3.8% 7.3% 3.8% - 37.5% 35.4% 8.8% 0.1% 0.2% 0% 3.1% [23]
May 20, 2010 University of Medellin 2.4% 5.5% 3.6% - 32.9% 37.4% 8.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 6.9% [24]
May 20, 2010 Centro Nacional De Consultoría 4% 5% 4% - 39% 34% 9% 0% 0% 0% 4% [25]
May 21, 2010 Datexco 2% 5% 3% - 35% 34% 9% 0% 0% 0% 12% [26]
May 22, 2010 Ipsos Napoleón Franco 3% 6% 5% - 34% 32% 6% 0% 0% 0% 14% [27]

Second Round: Mockus vs. Santos

Date Institute Candidate Undecided
(Ns/Nr)
V. None		 Source
Juan Manuel Santos Antanas Mockus
April 15, 2010 Centro Nacional de Consultoría 49% 44% 7% [28]
April 16, 2010 Ipsos Napoleón Franco 45% 37% 18% [12]
April 22, 2010 Centro Nacional de Consultoría 44% 50% 6% [13]
April 26, 2010 Ipsos Napoleón Franco 37% 50% 13% [14]
April 28, 2010 Invamer Gallup 42.2% 47.9% 9.9% [15]
April 29, 2010 Centro Nacional de Consultoría 42% 53% 5% [16]
April 30, 2010 Datexco 29% 41.5% 29.5% [17]
May 6, 2010 Centro Nacional de Consultoría 43% 50% 7% [18]
May 7, 2010 Datexco 30.5% 52% 17.5% [19]
May 9, 2010 Ipsos Napoleón Franco 41% 48% 11% [20]
May 13, 2010 Centro Nacional de Consultoría 47% 47% 6% [21]
May 14, 2010 Datexco 33.6% 47.9% 17.5% [22]
May 19, 2010 Invamer Gallup 42.2% 48.5% 9.3% [23]
May 20, 2010 University of Medellin 36% 41.4% 22.6% [29]
May 20, 2010 Centro Nacional de Consultoría 47% 46% 7% [25]
May 21, 2010 Datexco 44% 45% 11% [30]
May 22, 2010 Ipsos Napoleón Franco 40% 45% 15% [27]
June 3, 2010 Centro Nacional de Consultoría 61.6% 29.8% 5.8% [31]

Electoral results

On polling day seven Colombian security services personnel were killed and eight were missing; parallels were drawn with FARC attacks and Santos' tenure as Defense Minister.[32]

Results

No candidate received an outright majority in the first round vote held on May 30. Santos and Mockus faced one another in the runoff election on 20 June, leading to the election of Juan Manuel Santos as the next Colombian President.

Santos achieved a landslide victory, with 69 per cent of the votes.[33] Mockus got 27.51 per cent of votes.[34] This was the largest margin of victory for a president in the democratic period of Colombia's history.[35] Santos won 32 of the country's 33 electoral districts.[33] His allies have an overwhelming majority in the Colombian Congress.[33] Santos vowed to continue his predecessor's hardline stance against the country's Marxist rebels.[33] He paraphrased Isaac Newton – "If we have come far it's because we are standing on the shoulders of giants" – and said he would rid Colombia of what he described as the "nightmare of violence".[36]

The United States State Department said it was "pleased" with the election of Santos and praised the "spirited debate" before the runoff and Colombia's "longstanding commitment to democratic principles".[35]


e • d Summary of the 30 May 2010 and 20 June 2010 Colombian presidential election results
Candidates – Parties First round Second round
Votes % Votes %
Juan Manuel Santos – Social Party of National Unity (Partido de «la U») 6,802,043 46.68 9,028,943 69.13
Antanas Mockus – Green Party (Partido Verde) 3,134,222 21.51 3,587,975 27.47
Germán Vargas Lleras – Radical Change (Cambio Radical) 1,473,627 10.11  
Gustavo Petro – Alternative Democratic Pole (Polo Democrático Alternativo) 1,331,267 9.14
Noemí Sanín – Colombian Conservative Party (Partido Conservador Colombiano) 893,819 6.13
Rafael Pardo – Colombian Liberal Party (Partido Liberal Colombiano) 638,302 4.38
Róbinson Devia – Voice of Conscience Movement (Movimiento la Voz de la Consciencia) 31,338 0.22
Jairo Calderón – Liberal Opening (Movimiento Apertura Liberal) 29,151 0.20
Jaime Araújo – Afro-Colombian Social Alliance (Alianza Social Afrocolombiano) 14,847 0.10
Total votes for candidates 14,348,616 98.46 12,616,918 96.60
Blank votes 223,977 1.54 444,274 3.40
Total valid votes 14,572,593 100.00 13,061,192 100.00
Null votes 170,874   198,003  
Unmarked ballots 37,553   37,729  
Turnout 14,781,020 49.27 13,296,924 44.33
Source: Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil, Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil

See also

Notes and references

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  3. ↑ 3.00 3.01 3.02 3.03 3.04 3.05 3.06 3.07 3.08 3.09 3.10 3.11 3.12 3.13 Uribe will not run again. Angus Reid Global Monitor. March 14, 2010.
  4. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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  12. ↑ 12.0 12.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  13. ↑ 13.0 13.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  14. ↑ 14.0 14.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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  18. ↑ 18.0 18.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  19. ↑ 19.0 19.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  20. ↑ 20.0 20.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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  33. ↑ 33.0 33.1 33.2 33.3 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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  35. ↑ 35.0 35.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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