Andalusian parliamentary election, 2012

Andalusian parliamentary election, 2012

25 March 2012
All 109 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia 55 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered	6,392,620 2.6%
Turnout	3,885,137 (60.8%) 11.9 pp
First party Second party Third party   Leader Javier Arenas José Antonio Griñán Diego Valderas Party PP PSOE-A IU Leader since 18 April 2004 23 April 2009 10 October 2000 Last election 47 seats, 38.5% 56 seats, 48.4% 6 seats, 7.1% Seats won 50 47 12 Seat change 3 9 6 Popular vote 1,570,833 1,527,923 438,372 Percentage 40.7% 39.6% 11.3% Swing 2.2 pp 8.8 pp 4.2 pp
Province-level units won by PSOE-A (red) and PP (blue)
President before election José Antonio Griñán PSOE-A Elected President José Antonio Griñán PSOE-A

The 2012 Andalusian parliamentary election was held on Sunday, 25 March 2012, to elect the 9th Parliament of Andalusia, the regional legislature of the Spanish autonomous community of Andalusia. At stake were all 109 seats in the Parliament, determining the President of the Regional Government of Andalusia.

Despite predictions that the People's Party (PP) could win an absolute majority of seats for the first time in its history, it failed to gain enough seats to do so. While the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) lost its overall majority of seats and scored second in this region for the first time ever in a regional election, they continued in power thanks to a coalition agreement with United Left (IU), which doubled its number of seats.

Electoral system

The 109 members of the Parliament of Andalusia were elected in 8 multi-member districts, corresponding to Andalusia's eight provinces, using the D'Hondt method and a closed-list proportional representation system. Each district was entitled to an initial minimum of 8 seats, with the remaining 45 seats allocated among the eight provinces in proportion to their populations, on the condition that the number of seats in each district did not exceed 2 times those of any other. For the 2012 election, seats were distributed as follows: Almeria (12), Cadiz (15), Cordoba (12), Granada (13), Huelva (11), Jaen (11), Malaga (17) and Seville (18).

Voting was on the basis of universal suffrage in a secret ballot. Only lists polling above 3% of valid votes in each district (which includes blank ballots—for none of the above) were entitled to enter the seat distribution.

Background

Date

Several dates were considered for the election. Initially scheduled for 4 or 18 March, the result of the general election in November made it advisable for Griñán to push the date further away to the last Sunday of March, in order to push the legislature to the limit and distance himself from the November election.

This has been the first time since 1996 that an Andalusian parliamentary election has not been held concurrently with a Spanish general election, as then-PM José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero had chosen to hold the 2012 general election 4 months ahead of schedule, on 20 November 2011.

2011 general election

Main article: Spanish general election, 2011

The 2011 general election resulted in a resounding victory for the opposition People's Party of Mariano Rajoy, which won in both seats and popular vote for the first time ever in this autonomous community since the Spanish transition to democracy. The PP won 1,985,612 votes (45.57%) and 33 seats to PSOE's 1,594,893 votes (36.60%) and 25 seats, after losing 800,000 votes and 11 seats from those won in 2008. United Left won 2 seats from Sevilla and Malaga and 8.27% of the share with 360,212 votes.

Results projections based on the results of the general election gave the People's Party an absolute majority with 58 seats (out of 109 up for election), with the PSOE in a distant second place with 43 seats. United Left would keep its 6 seats on the projections while UPyD could enter the Parliament with 2 seats. Had those results been confirmed, it would have meant the end of a 30-year-long hegemony of Socialist rule in the community: the party being in power since the creation of the Andalusian autonomous community.

Opinion polls

Vote

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. However, if such date is unknown, the date of publication will be given instead.

Date	Polling Firm/Source	PSOE	PP	IU	PA	UPyD	Oth.	Lead
25 Mar 2012	Regional Election	39.6	40.7	11.3	2.5	3.4	2.6	1.1
25 Mar	Ipsos-Eco	39.2	42.0	9.9			8.9	2.8
Exit polls
19 Mar	GAD3	38.1	46.7	8.1	2.1	2.7	2.3	8.6
12–16 Mar	UJA	36.8	42.9	10.8	2.7	3.6	3.2	6.1
12–15 Mar	Sigma-2	36.0	45.8	8.9	2.9	3.8	2.6	9.8
6–15 Mar	Metroscopia	34.4	47.3	8.8	2.7	3.2	3.6	12.9
1–15 Mar	NC-Report	35.7	45.5	9.2		4.2	5.4	9.8
12–13 Mar	Opinión 2000	36.0	46.7	8.8	2.8	4.1	1.6	10.7
7–12 Mar	IMC	35.2	46.5	8.6	1.8	4.6	3.3	11.3
5–12 Mar	Low-Cost	37.2	45.2	8.5			9.1	8.0
5–8 Mar	GAD3	36.8	46.2	9.2	2.4	2.9	2.5	9.4
20 Feb–6 Mar	NC-Report	35.3	45.2	9.8		4.3	5.4	9.9
13–29 Feb	Commentia	36.9	45.2	8.4	2.3	3.7	3.5	8.3
15–27 Feb	CIS	37.7	44.9	9.8	2.6	2.6	2.4	7.2
22–24 Feb	Sigma-2	36.3	45.0	9.3	2.4	4.2	2.8	8.7
6–22 Feb	GESPA	37.2	46.7	7.6	2.2	3.9	2.4	9.5
8–16 Feb	IMC	35.8	45.8	8.1	2.2	4.3	3.8	10.0
1–14 Feb	Nexo	37.6	45.1	7.5	2.8	3.3	3.7	7.5
1–13 Feb	NC-Report	33.8	46.9				19.3	13.1
30 Jan	NC-Report	35.2	46.4	8.8	2.9	3.8	2.9	11.2
16–24 Jan	IMC	34.8	46.6	8.4	2.1	4.6	3.5	11.8
2012
1–30 Dec	CADPEA	37.6	47.0	6.3	2.0	3.0	4.1	9.4
20 Nov 2011	General Election	36.6	45.6	8.3	1.8	4.8	2.9	9.0
18–24 Oct	Commentia	34.8	49.4	8.4	2.0		5.4	14.6
26 Sep–21 Oct	IESA	36.0	46.4	8.1	2.8	3.2	3.5	10.4
6 Jun–11 Jul	CADPEA	34.3	48.9	8.3	2.4	1.4	4.7	14.6
4–10 Jul	IMOP	39.0	46.0	6.8	2.5	3.0	2.7	7.0
12–15 Apr	Sigma-2	36.8	48.0	7.8			7.4	11.2
28 Feb	Metroscopia	35.2	47.5	8.4			8.9	12.3
10–20 Feb	IMC	37.8	44.8	7.5	2.3		7.6	7.0
9–16 Feb	Commentia	36.9	47.1	8.5	2.9		4.6	10.2
1–4 Feb	GESPA	37.0	46.1	7.8			9.1	9.1
18 Jan–2 Feb	Nexo	39.7	46.2	7.6	3.2		3.3	6.5
22 Jan	NC-Report	38.7	45.7				15.6	7.0
2011
20–23 Dec	Sigma-2	36.4	49.3	7.2			7.1	12.9
24 Nov–22 Dec	CADPEA	36.2	45.4	8.2	2.3	1.4	6.5	9.2
18 Oct–18 Nov	IESA	37.7	46.8	8.2	2.9	1.7	2.7	9.1
7 Nov	Commentia	39.1	46.2	7.0	2.7	2.1	2.9	7.1
20–26 Sep	GESPA	38.2	45.5	7.6	2.5	1.7	4.5	7.3
6 Jun–6 Jul	CADPEA	38.0	45.1	8.1	2.1	1.5	5.2	7.1
10–15 Jun	Commentia	38.1	45.4	8.5	2.5	1.5	4.0	7.3
8–12 Jun	IMC	38.3	43.8	7.5	2.3		8.1	5.5
3 Mar	Commentia	42.9	42.5	7.5	2.5	2.0	2.6	0.4
1 Mar	Sigma-2	41.8	45.7	6.2	1.4	1.6	3.3	3.9
28 Feb	Metroscopia	41.0	43.3	7.2			8.5	2.3
20 Feb	PULSO	41.8	41.1	6.4	2.4	2.6	5.7	0.7
25 Jan–12 Feb	IMC	40.4	42.4	7.1	2.1		8.0	2.0
7–29 Jan	CADPEA	43.2	41.9	7.1	2.8	1.4	3.6	1.3
20–28 Jan	Nexo	41.3	41.9	6.9	3.9		6.0	0.6
15 Jan	IESA	41.6	43.2	7.1	2.4	1.8	3.9	1.6
2010
23 Sep–2 Oct	Commentia	42.7	42.2	7.1	2.4	2.6	3.0	0.5
9 Jun–9 Jul	CADPEA	46.2	39.7	6.7	2.6		4.8	6.5
28 Jun	Commentia	45.6	39.1	7.5	2.7	2.4	2.7	6.5
25 May–19 Jun	PULSO	48.6	40.2	6.2	1.8		3.2	8.4
7 Jun 2009	EP Election	48.2	39.7	5.2	1.0	2.5	3.4	8.5
28 Feb	Commentia	46.2	39.1	7.5	2.8	1.2	2.9	7.1
28 Feb	Metroscopia	44.3	43.2	6.6	2.9		3.0	1.1
19–23 Feb	Sigma-2	46.8	40.5	7.2	2.3		3.2	6.3
5–9 Feb	IMC	45.3	42.1	6.8	1.9		3.9	3.2
2009
9–19 Dec	IAC	44.7	43.1	7.6	1.5		3.1	1.6
14 Nov–12 Dec	CADPEA	46.2	38.8	7.5	2.2		5.3	7.4
10 Nov–5 Dec	IESA	47.0	40.8	6.2	2.5		3.5	6.2
19 Oct	Commentia	46.5	39.6	7.3	2.2	1.2	3.2	6.9
4–28 Jun	CADPEA	46.7	38.1	7.9	2.0		5.3	8.6
9 Mar 2008	Regional Election	48.4	38.5	7.1	2.8	0.6	2.6	9.9

Seat projections

Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 55 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Andalusia.

55 seats needed for majority

Date	Polling Firm/Source	PSOE	PP	IU	PA	UPyD	Others
25 Mar 2012	Regional Election	47	50	12	0	0	0
25 Mar	Ipsos-Eco	45−48	52−55	8−10	0	0	0
Exit polls
19 Mar	GAD3	44−48	55−58	7−9	0	0	0
12–16 Mar	UJA	43−45	53−56	9−10	0−1	0−1	0
12–15 Mar	Sigma-2	43−44	54−57	7−9	0−1	1−2	0
6–15 Mar	Metroscopia	41	59	9	0	0	0
1–15 Mar	NC-Report	42−43	55−57	7−9	0−1	0−2	0
7–12 Mar	IMC	43	58	6	0	2	0
5–12 Mar	Low-Cost	44	57	7	0	1	0
5–8 Mar	GAD3	42−45	56−58	7−10	0	0−1	0
20 Feb–6 Mar	NC-Report	41−44	55−57	8−9	0−1	0−2	0
13–29 Feb	Commentia	44−47	54−57	7−8	0	1	0
15–27 Feb	CIS	44−46	54−55	9−10	0	0	0
22–24 Feb	Sigma-2	42−44	54−57	8−9	0−1	1−2	0
6–22 Feb	GESPA	43−44	56−58	6−7	0	2	0
8–16 Feb	IMC	43	59	6	0	1	0
1–14 Feb	Nexo	46−47	53−57	6−8	0−1	0−1	0
1–13 Feb	NC-Report	41	57	9	1	1	0
30 Jan	NC-Report	44	55	8	1	1	0
2012
20 Nov 2011	General Election	(43)	(58)	(6)	(0)	(2)	(0)
12–15 Apr	Sigma-2	43−46	56−60	6−7	0	0	0
28 Feb	Metroscopia	45	57	7	0	0	0
10–20 Feb	IMC	45	57	7	0	0	0
1–4 Feb	GESPA	45	56−57	7−8	0	0	0
22 Jan	NC-Report	46−47	53−54	9	0	0	0
2011
20–23 Dec	Sigma-2	41−46	56−64	4−7	0	0	0
20–26 Sep	GESPA	45−46	56−57	7	0	0	0
8–12 Jun	IMC	46	56	7	0	0	0
28 Feb	Metroscopia	49	54	6	0	0	0
25 Jan–12 Feb	IMC	51	52	6	0	0	0
2010
7 Jun 2009	EP Election	(58)	(48)	(3)	(0)	(0)	(0)
2 Feb	Metroscopia	53−55	49−50	5−6	0	0	0
5–9 Feb	IMC	54	49	6	0	0	0
2009
9–19 Dec	IAC	52	51	6	0	0	0
9 Mar 2008	Regional Election	56	47	6	0	0	0

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 25 March 2012 Andalusian Parliament election results →

Party		Vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Won	+/−
	People's Party (PP)	1,570,833	40.67	2.22	50	3
	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia (PSOE-A)	1,527,923	39.56	8.85	47	9
	United Left The Greens-Assembly for Andalusia (IULV-CA)	438,372	11.35	4.29	12	6
	Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD)	129,407	3.35	2.73	0	±0
	Andalusian Party (PA)	96,770	2.51	0.25	0	±0
	Equo (EQUO)	20,383	0.53	New	0	±0
	Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA)	8,781	0.23	New	0	±0
	Blank Seats (Eb)	5,660	0.15	New	0	±0
	Jaded.org (Hartos.org)	4,966	0.13	New	0	±0
	Communist Party of the Andalusian People (PCPA-PCPE)	4,119	0.11	0.05	0	±0

Parties with less than 0.1% of the vote		20,452	0.53	–	0	±0
	We Won't Pay this Crisis (ECNP)	2,680	0.07	New	0	±0
	Spanish Falange of the JONS (FE-JONS)	2,407	0.06	0.02	0	±0
	For a Fairer World (PUM+J)	1,704	0.04	New	0	±0
	Andalusian Platform-Citizen Forum (FC)	1,634	0.04	New	0	±0
	Liberal Democratic Centre (CDL)	1,406	0.04	New	0	±0
	Regionalist Party for Eastern Andalusia (PRAO)	1,071	0.03	New	0	±0
	Internationalist Solidarity and Self-Management (SAIn)	1,040	0.03	0.03	0	±0
	Communist Unification of Spain (UCE)	1,026	0.03	New	0	±0
	Humanist Party (PH)	896	0.02	0.07	0	±0
	Andalusian Horticulture Party (PHAN)	832	0.02	New	0	±0
	Socialists and Republicans (SyR)	787	0.02	New	0	±0
	Andalusian Convergence (CAnda)	762	0.02	0.15	0	±0
	Spanish Alternative (AES)	653	0.02	New	0	±0
	Citizens of Democratic Centre (CCD)	643	0.02	New	0	±0
	Republican Social Movement (MSR)	628	0.02	New	0	±0
	Democratic Majority (MD)	515	0.01	New	0	±0
	Family and Life Party (PFyV)	408	0.01	0.01	0	±0
	Engine and Sports Alternative (AMD)	362	0.01	New	0	±0
	Andalusian Social Democratic Party (PSDA)	345	0.01	0.02	0	±0
	Group and Union for the Progress of Almeria (AUPAL)	216	0.01	New	0	±0
	Andalusian Nationalist People (PNdeA)	156	0.00	New	0	±0
	Regionalist Call for Andalusia (CReA)	146	0.00	New	0	±0
	Andalusian Solidary Independent Republican Party (RISA)	135	0.00	New	0	±0

	Blank ballots	35,081	0.91	0.15
Total		3,862,747	100.00		109	±0
Valid votes		3,862,747	99.42	0.05
Invalid votes		22,390	0.58	0.05
Votes cast / turnout		3,885,137	60.78	11.89
Abstentions		2,507,483	31.06	11.89
Registered voters		6,392,620
Source: Argos Information Portal

Vote share
PP			40.67%
PSOE-A			39.56%
IULV-CA			11.35%
UPyD			3.35%
PA			2.51%
Others			1.67%
Blank ballots			0.91%

Parliamentary seats
PP			45.87%
PSOE-A			43.12%
IULV-CA			11.01%

Results by province

Post-election

Investiture voting

On 3 May 2012, as a result of the PSOE-IU coalition agreement, José Antonio Griñán was re-elected as regional President. One IU deputy, Juan Manuel Sánchez Gordillo, cast an invalid vote in protest for not being able to elect a candidate of his own party.

3 May 2012 Investiture voting for José Antonio Griñán Martínez (PSOE) Absolute majority: 55/109
Vote	Parties	Votes
Y Yes	PSOE (47), IU (11)	58 / 109
No	PP (50)	50 / 109
Abstentions		0 / 109
Invalid votes	IU (1)	1 / 109
Source: Historia Electoral

In July 2013, President Griñán announced he would resign after a successor for the office had been chosen from among his party. As regional minister Susana Díaz was the only person able to gather the required guarantees to stand in the primary election that was to held for such a purpose, she was unanimously proclaimed as the party's candidate for the Presidency of the Junta of Andalusia. As a result, on 5 September 2013 the Andalusian Parliament elected Díaz as Griñán's successor.

5 September 2013 Investiture voting for Susana Díaz Pacheco (PSOE) Absolute majority: 55/109
Vote	Parties	Votes
Y Yes	PSOE (47), IU (11)	58 / 109
No	PP (48)	48 / 109
Abstentions		0 / 109
2 PP and 1 IU deputy missed the voting.
Source: Historia Electoral