2022 Ontario general election
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124 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario 63 seats needed for a majority |
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Turnout | 43.53% (![]() |
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450px Popular vote by riding. As this is a FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote, but instead by the result in each riding. Riding names are listed at the bottom.
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The 2022 Ontario general election was held on June 2, 2022, to elect Members of the Provincial Parliament to serve in the 43rd Parliament of Ontario.
The governing Progressive Conservatives, led by Premier Doug Ford, were re-elected to a second Majority government, winning 7 more seats than they had won in 2018. The NDP retained their status as the Official Opposition, despite losing seats and finishing third in the popular vote, while the Ontario Liberals finished 2nd in the popular vote, but only won 8 seats, falling short of official party status. The Green Party retained their one seat they won in 2018 while the New Blue and Ontario Party failed to win a seat, both losing their lone sitting MPP's.
The election set a record for the lowest voter turnout in an Ontario provincial election; only 43% people who were eligible voted. This broke the previous record of 48.2% in the 2011 election.[5]
Contents
Background
As of December 2016, Ontario elections are held on the first Thursday in June in the fourth calendar year following the previous general election.[6]
In the June 2018 Ontario general election, the Progressive Conservative Party (PC Party) led by Doug Ford won a strong majority government. The New Democratic Party (NDP) led by Andrea Horwath became the Official Opposition; this was the first time since 1990 they surpassed their third-place status. The governing Liberal Party led by Premier Kathleen Wynne was decimated, winning only 7 out of the 124 seats in the legislature and being reduced to third-place status. The Green Party won its first seat in history, with leader Mike Schreiner becoming its first Member of Provincial Parliament (MPP).
Wynne resigned as leader immediately after and MPP John Fraser succeeded her as interim leader; he held that post until March 2020, when Wynne's former minister of transportation, Steven Del Duca, became permanent leader of the Liberal Party. Meanwhile, Horwath and Schreiner both remained leader of their parties and had no intention of resigning.
By December 2019, polling showed that the Ford government was as unpopular as the previous Wynne government as a result of several budget cuts.[7] However, the Progressive Conservatives experienced a surge of support during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic; a Mainstreet Research poll in June 2020 showed the PCs at 42 percent, the Liberals at 28 percent, and the NDP at 23 percent.[8]
On October 5, 2020, Ontario MPPs voted unanimously in favour of a motion stating that the government will not call an election prior to the fixed election date in 2022.[9][10] Before this vote, the Legislative Assembly of Ontario could have been dissolved earlier by the Lieutenant Governor of Ontario on a motion of no confidence or if the Premier triggered a snap election (the former was extremely unlikely to work against the incumbent government with a majority).
In April 2021, the province experienced a major third wave of COVID-19 infections, and, after quickly reversing government health policies, such as opening and then abruptly closing restaurants, the government was criticized over their handling of COVID-19. This led to the PCs' support dipping, but remaining ahead of the Liberals and NDP.[11]
In late April 2022 – days before the election call – the Ford government released its budget, promising to implement it if the government is reelected. The budget recorded a deficit of $19.9 billion and promised substantial spending on infrastructure (including for their proposed Highway 413) and tax breaks for some workers and seniors.[12]
On May 3, 2022, Premier Doug Ford met with the Lieutenant Governor of Ontario to advise dissolution of the legislature and for writs of election be drawn up.[13]
Standings
Party | Party leader | Seats | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
2018 | Dissol. | |||
Progressive Conservative (PC) | Doug Ford | 76 | 67 | |
New Democratic (NDP) | Andrea Horwath | 40 | 38 | |
Liberal (LIB) | Steven Del Duca | 7 | 7 | |
Green (GRN) | Mike Schreiner | 1 | 1 | |
New Blue (NB) | Jim Karahalios | NA | 1 | |
Ontario Party (TOP) | Derek Sloan | 0 | 1 | |
Independent | 0 | 6 | ||
Vacant | 3 | |||
Total | 124 | 124 |
Note that for purposes of the administration of the Assembly, parties with fewer than 12 seats are not recognized, and their members are treated as independent MPPs.[14]
Timeline
Party | 2018 | Gain/(loss) due to | 2022 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Resignation from caucus |
Resignation as MPP |
Expulsion | Switching allegiance |
Byelection hold | ||||
Progressive Conservative | 76 | (2) | (2) | (2) | (3) | 67 | ||
New Democratic | 40 | (1) | (1) | 38 | ||||
Liberal | 7 | (3) | 1 | 2 | 7 | |||
Green | 1 | 1 | ||||||
New Blue | NA | 1 | 1 | |||||
Ontario Party | 0 | 1 | 1 | |||||
Independent | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | ||||
Vacant | 0 | 3 | 3 | |||||
Total | 124 | – | (2) | – | – | 2 | 124 |
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2018
- June 7: The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario (PC) under Doug Ford wins a majority government in the 42nd Ontario general election, with Andrea Horwath's New Democrats (NDP) forming the Official Opposition. After leading the party to the worst result in its history, outgoing Premier Kathleen Wynne resigns as leader of the Ontario Liberal Party, but remains MPP for Don Valley West.[31]
- June 14: Ottawa South MPP John Fraser is named interim leader of the Ontario Liberal Party.[32]
- June 29: Progressive Conservative leader Doug Ford is sworn in as the 26th Premier of Ontario.[33]
- July 11: Wellington—Halton Hills MPP Ted Arnott, a Progressive Conservative, is elected Speaker by secret ballot.[34]
2020
- March 7: Former Vaughan MPP and cabinet minister Steven Del Duca is elected leader of the Ontario Liberal Party.[35]
- October 5: MPP's vote unanimously in favour of a motion introduced by Scarborough—Guildwood MPP Mitzie Hunter stating that the government will not call an election prior to the fixed election date in 2022.[9][10]
2021
- November 8: Randy Hillier announces that he will run under the banner of the People's Party of Canada's Ontario wing, provisionally known as the Populist Party Ontario.[36][37][38] He later announced that he would not seek re-election.[39]
- December 14: Former Member of Parliament for Hastings—Lennox and Addington, Derek Sloan, announces that he will lead the Ontario Party in the upcoming election.[40][41]
2022
- May 3: Writs of the election were drawn up, dissolving the Legislature and officially starting the campaign.[42]
- May 10: First leaders' debate, organized by Federation of Northern Ontario Municipalities.[43]
- May 16: Second leaders' debate, organized by Broadcast Consortium.[44]
- June 2: Election day.
Campaign period
Party slogans
Party | English | French (translation) |
---|---|---|
█ PC | "Get It Done."[45][46] | "Passer à l'action" ("Taking Action") |
█ New Democratic (NDP) | "Strong. Ready. Working for you."[47] | "Force. Détermination. Pour vous" ("Strength. Determination. For you.") |
█ Liberal | "The Choice is Yours"[48] | "C’est votre choix" ("It's Your Choice.") |
█ Green | "The Ontario You Want. The Leadership We Need."[49] | "L'Ontario que vous voulez. La direction qu'il nous faut." (identical to English slogan) |
█ New Blue | "Strength. Stability. Liberty. Good government."[50] | N/A (unofficial translation: "La force. La stabilité. La liberté. Un bon gouvernement.") |
█ Ontario Party | "Freedom, Family, & Faith"[51] | "Liberté, Famille, et Foi" (identical to English slogan) |
Debates
Date | Time (EDT) | Organiser(s) | Language | Participants | |||
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PC | NDP | Lib. | Green | ||||
10 May 2022 | 1:00pm – 2:30pm | Federation of Northern Ontario Municipalities | English | Present Ford |
Present Horwath |
Present Del Duca |
Present Schreiner |
16 May 2022 | 6:30pm – 8:00pm | Broadcast Consortium | English | Present Ford |
Present Horwath |
Present Del Duca |
Present Schreiner |
17 May 2022 | 8:00pm – 9:00pm | Radio-Canada and TFO | French | Present Mulroney |
Present Gélinas |
Present Simard |
Present Des Granges |
Issues
Issue | PC[52][53] | NDP[54][55][56] | Liberal[57][58][59] | Green[60][61][62][63][64] | New Blue[65] | Ontario Party[66] |
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Budget |
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Business supports |
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COVID-19 |
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Education |
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Elections |
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Energy and Environment |
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Healthcare |
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Housing |
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Indigenous |
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Law Enforcement |
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Regulation |
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Social assistance |
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Taxation |
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Transportation |
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Unions |
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Endorsements
Type | PC | NDP | Liberal | Green | New Blue | Ontario Party |
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Media |
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Unions and business associations |
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Candidates
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Incumbents not running for reelection
Opinion polls
Campaign polls
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Polling firm | Last date of polling |
Source | PC | NDP | Liberal | Green | New Blue | Ontario | Other | Margin of error | Sample size | Polling type | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forum Research | June 1, 2022 | [p 1] | 40.3 | 23.2 | 24.5 | 6.5 | — | — | 5.5 | ±3.1% | 1,032 | IVR | 15.8 |
Research Co. | June 1, 2022 | [p 2] | 39 | 23 | 26 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +3.8% | 659 | Online | 13 |
EKOS | June 1, 2022 | [p 3] | 37 | 23.5 | 24.7 | 8.7 | 4.4 | — | 2 | +2.6% | 1,430 | IVR | 12.3 |
Abacus Data | June 1, 2022 | [p 4] | 40 | 22 | 27 | 4 | 4 | — | 3 | N/A | 1,043 | Online | 13 |
Mainstreet Research | June 1, 2022 | [p 5] | 38.9 | 22.8 | 24.2 | 9.4 | — | — | 4.7 | +2.2% | 2,034 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 14.7 |
Ipsos | May 31, 2022 | [p 6] | 41 | 25 | 24 | 6 | — | — | 4 | +2.2% | 2,501 | Telephone/Online | 16 |
Nanos Research | May 31, 2022 | [p 7] | 38.8 | 24.7 | 26.3 | 6.1 | 2 | 2.1 | 0.2 | ±4.5% | 465 | Telephone/Online | 12.5 |
Mainstreet Research | May 31, 2022 | [p 5] | 35.4 | 23.9 | 26.2 | 9.2 | — | — | 5.2 | +2.1% | 2,086 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 9.2 |
Leger | May 30, 2022 | [p 8] | 40 | 24 | 25 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | N/A | 1,334 | Online | 15 |
Innovative Research Group | May 30, 2022 | [p 9] | 34 | 24 | 29 | 8 | 3 | — | 2 | N/A | 637 | Online | 5 |
Mainstreet Research | May 30, 2022 | [p 5] | 39.3 | 22.5 | 26.8 | 6.4 | — | — | 5.1 | +2.1% | 2,089 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 12.5 |
Earnscliffe/Leger | May 29, 2022 | [p 10] | 39 | 24 | 26 | 5 | — | — | 6 | N/A | 1,000 | Online | 13 |
Mainstreet Research | May 29, 2022 | [p 5] | 36.6 | 23.5 | 27.2 | 6.8 | — | — | 5.8 | +2.2% | 1,921 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 9.4 |
Counsel | May 28, 2022 | [p 11] | 39.6 | 22.5 | 25.1 | 7.1 | — | — | 5.7 | +2% | 2,411 | Online | 14.5 |
Mainstreet Research | May 28, 2022 | [p 5] | 37.3 | 23.2 | 26.3 | 7.1 | — | — | 6.1 | +2.3% | 1,789 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 11 |
Mainstreet Research | May 27, 2022 | [p 5] | 39.1 | 20.8 | 26.5 | 7.8 | — | — | 5.8 | +2.4% | 1,694 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 12.6 |
Innovative Research Group | May 27, 2022 | [p 12] | 40 | 21 | 28 | 9 | — | — | 3 | N/A | 492 | Telephone | 12 |
Mainstreet Research | May 26, 2022 | [p 5] | 38.3 | 21.6 | 26.9 | 7.6 | — | — | 5.7 | +2.4% | 1,704 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 11.4 |
Angus Reid | May 25, 2022 | [p 13] | 38 | 24 | 26 | 7 | — | — | 5 | N/A | 1,331 | Online | 12 |
EKOS | May 25, 2022 | [p 14] | 33.7 | 23.8 | 26.9 | 8 | 4.7 | — | 3 | +3.1% | 1,017 | IVR | 6.8 |
Mainstreet Research | May 25, 2022 | [p 5] | 36 | 23.5 | 26.1 | 8.5 | — | — | 5.9 | +2.4% | 1,622 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 9.9 |
Mainstreet Research | May 24, 2022 | [p 5] | 35.3 | 23.1 | 27.2 | 8 | — | — | 6.4 | +2.4% | 1,724 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 8.1 |
Leger | May 23, 2022 | [p 15] | 38 | 24 | 26 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | N/A | 1,324 | Online | 12 |
Innovative Research Group | May 23, 2022 | [p 16] | 35 | 23 | 30 | 9 | — | — | 4 | N/A | 439 | Online | 5 |
Mainstreet Research | May 23, 2022 | [p 5] | 35.4 | 24.2 | 25.2 | 7.8 | — | — | 7.4 | +2.4% | 1,696 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 10.2 |
Nanos Research | May 22, 2022 | [p 17] | 37.3 | 23.2 | 28 | 6.3 | 3 | 1.7 | 0.3 | ±4.5% | 479 | Telephone/Online | 9.3 |
Earnscliffe/Leger | May 22, 2022 | [p 18] | 36 | 24 | 28 | 6 | — | — | 6 | N/A | 1,000 | Online | 8 |
EKOS | May 22, 2022 | [p 19] | 34.5 | 24.1 | 26.7 | 6.6 | 5.3 | — | 2.7 | +3.2% | 948 | IVR | 7.8 |
Mainstreet Research | May 22, 2022 | [p 5] | 35 | 23.8 | 25.1 | 8.2 | — | — | 7.9 | +2.4% | 1,709 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 9.9 |
Abacus Data | May 21, 2022 | [p 20] | 36 | 24 | 28 | 5 | — | — | 8 | N/A | 1,228 | Online | 8 |
Mainstreet Research | May 21, 2022 | [p 5] | 34.4 | 25.1 | 26.7 | 7.2 | — | — | 6.5 | +2.4% | 1,679 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 7.7 |
Mainstreet Research | May 20, 2022 | [p 5] | 35.5 | 26.1 | 25.7 | 6.5 | — | — | 6.3 | +2.4% | 1,734 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 9.4 |
Pollara | May 19, 2022 | [p 21] | 40 | 21 | 27 | 8 | — | — | 4 | +2.5% | 1,514 | Telephone | 13 |
Ipsos | May 19, 2022 | [p 22] | 38 | 23 | 28 | 6 | — | — | 5 | +2.9% | 1,501 | Telephone/Online | 10 |
Innovative Research Group | May 19, 2022 | [p 23] | 36 | 26 | 28 | 8 | — | — | 2 | N/A | 606 | Online | 8 |
Mainstreet Research | May 19, 2022 | [p 5] | 36.9 | 24.7 | 26.2 | 5.1 | — | — | 7.2 | +2.4% | 1,686 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 10.7 |
Counsel | May 18, 2022 | [p 24] | 36.9 | 24.3 | 27.5 | 6.1 | — | — | 5.3 | +2.1% | 2,206 | Online | 9.4 |
Mainstreet Research | May 18, 2022 | [p 5] | 37.2 | 23.4 | 24.8 | 6.7 | — | — | 7.8 | +2.4% | 1,720 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 12.8 |
Nanos Research | May 17, 2022 | [p 25] | 36.1 | 19.8 | 29.3 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 1.1 | ±4.5% | 484 | Telephone/Online | 6.8 |
Research Co. | May 17, 2022 | [p 26] | 34 | 23 | 29 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +4% | 602 | Online | 5 |
EKOS | May 17, 2022 | [p 19] | 40.7 | 23.9 | 24.3 | 5.1 | — | — | 6.1 | +4% | 593 | IVR | 16.4 |
Mainstreet Research | May 17, 2022 | [p 5] | 36.8 | 23.1 | 27.2 | 5.6 | — | — | 7.3 | +2.4% | 1,675 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 9.6 |
Innovative Research Group | May 16, 2022 | [p 27] | 36 | 23 | 31 | 7 | — | — | 4 | N/A | 603 | Online | 5 |
Mainstreet Research | May 16, 2022 | [p 5] | 37.9 | 22.8 | 27.7 | 4.9 | — | — | 6.8 | +2.4% | 1,675 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 10.2 |
Earnscliffe/Leger | May 15, 2022 | [p 28] | 37 | 23 | 28 | 7 | — | — | 5 | N/A | 1,000 | Online | 9 |
Leger | May 15, 2022 | [p 29] | 37 | 23 | 28 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | N/A | 830 | Online | 9 |
Abacus Data | May 15, 2022 | [p 30] | 35 | 24 | 28 | 5 | — | — | 7 | N/A | 798 | Online | 7 |
Mainstreet Research | May 15, 2022 | [p 5] | 35.5 | 24.8 | 26.8 | 4.4 | — | — | 8.5 | +2.3% | 1,792 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 8.7 |
Mainstreet Research | May 14, 2022 | [p 5] | 36 | 25.4 | 27.6 | 4.1 | — | — | 7 | +2.3% | 1,764 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 8.4 |
Mainstreet Research | May 13, 2022 | [p 5] | 36 | 24.4 | 26.8 | 5.2 | — | — | 7.5 | +2.3% | 1,773 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 9.2 |
Mainstreet Research | May 12, 2022 | [p 5] | 36.6 | 22.6 | 28.6 | 5.2 | — | — | 7 | +2.4% | 1,639 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 8 |
Mainstreet Research | May 11, 2022 | [p 5] | 38.8 | 21.1 | 28.1 | 5.4 | — | — | 6.6 | +2.4% | 1,673 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 10.7 |
Mainstreet Research | May 10, 2022 | [p 5] | 39.0 | 22.3 | 27.1 | 4.6 | — | — | 7 | +2.4% | 1,639 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 11.9 |
Mainstreet Research | May 9, 2022 | [p 5] | 36.5 | 23.5 | 29 | 4.9 | — | — | 6.1 | +2.5% | 1,639 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 7.5 |
Abacus Data | May 9, 2022 | [p 31] | 38 | 22 | 29 | 5 | — | — | 7 | N/A | 1,208 | Online | 9 |
Innovative Research Group | May 9, 2022 | [p 32] | 40 | 24 | 28 | 6 | — | — | 3 | N/A | 600 | Online | 12 |
EKOS | May 9, 2022 | [p 33] | 33.9 | 25.4 | 29.3 | 5.1 | — | — | 6.3 | +3.1% | 1,000 | IVR | 4.6 |
Nanos Research | May 8, 2022 | [p 34] | 35.4 | 23.7 | 30.4 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 1.2 | ±4.4% | 500 | Telephone/Online | 5.0 |
Earnscliffe/Leger | May 8, 2022 | [p 35] | 39 | 24 | 27 | 6 | — | — | 3 | N/A | 1,000 | Online | 12 |
Leger | May 8, 2022 | [p 36] | 39 | 25 | 26 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | N/A | 819 | Online | 13 |
Mainstreet Research | May 8, 2022 | [p 5] | 37 | 23 | 30 | 5 | — | — | 5 | +2.5% | 1,515 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 7 |
Mainstreet Research | May 7, 2022 | [p 5] | 36.3 | 24.2 | 30.2 | 4.6 | — | — | 4.6 | +2.5% | 1,496 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 6.1 |
Mainstreet Research | May 6, 2022 | [p 5] | 38.3 | 24.5 | 29.1 | 4 | — | — | 4 | +2.5% | 1,532 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 9.2 |
Mainstreet Research | May 5, 2022 | [p 5] | 37.4 | 25.7 | 28.1 | 4.6 | — | — | 4.2 | ±2.7% | 1,335 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 9.3 |
Forum Research | May 4, 2022 | [p 37] | 37 | 26 | 29 | 4 | — | — | 4 | ±3% | 1,541 | IVR | 8 |
Mainstreet Research | May 4, 2022 | [p 5] | 36.7 | 25.1 | 27.1 | 5.7 | — | — | 5.3 | ±2.7% | 1,335 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 9.6 |
Pre-campaign polls
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Polling firm | Last date of polling |
Source | PC | NDP | Liberal | Green | New Blue | Ontario | Other | Margin of error | Sample size | Polling type | Lead |
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Nanos Research | May 2, 2022 | [p 38] | 36.9 | 23.7 | 30.4 | 4.3 | 0.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | ±4.4% | 500 | Telephone/Online | 6.5 |
Innovative Research Group | May 2, 2022 | [p 39] | 37 | 24 | 29 | 7 | — | — | 2 | N/A | 1,409 | Online | 8 |
Earnscliffe/Leger | May 1, 2022 | [p 40] | 35 | 24 | 28 | 7 | — | — | 6 | N/A | 1,001 | Online | 7 |
Ipsos | May 1, 2022 | [p 41] | 39 | 25 | 26 | 6 | — | — | 5 | ±2.9% | 1,501 | Telephone/Online | 13 |
Mainstreet Research | April 27, 2022 | [p 5] | 38.1 | 18.1 | 30.4 | 5.1 | — | — | 8.3 | ±2.6% | 1,422 | IVR | 7.7 |
Earnscliffe/Leger | April 24, 2022 | [p 42] | 38 | 25 | 28 | 5 | — | — | 5 | N/A | 1,000 | Online | 10 |
Abacus Data | April 19, 2022 | [p 43] | 36 | 23 | 32 | 6 | — | — | 4 | ±2.1% | 1,500 | Online | 4 |
Mainstreet Research | April 19, 2022 | [p 5] | 39.6 | 21.2 | 25.4 | 5.6 | — | — | 7.6 | ±2.8% | 1,211 | IVR | 14.2 |
Ipsos | April 14, 2022 | [p 44] | 35 | 23 | 32 | 5 | — | — | 5 | ±3.5% | 1,001 | Online | 3 |
Mainstreet Research | April 12, 2022 | [p 5] | 36 | 24 | 28 | 5 | — | — | 6 | ±2.8% | 1239 | IVR | 8 |
Mainstreet Research | April 6, 2022 | [p 5] | 39.2 | 24.1 | 25.8 | 3.4 | — | — | 7.5 | ±2.7% | 1,289 | IVR | 13.4 |
Mainstreet Research | March 31, 2022 | [p 45] | 36 | 22 | 31 | 4 | — | — | 7 | ±2.8% | 1,252 | IVR | 5 |
Leger | March 28, 2022 | [p 46] | 39 | 24 | 25 | 5 | 5 | — | 3 | ±3.1% | 1,001 | Online | 14 |
Angus Reid | March 15, 2022 | [p 47] | 37 | 29 | 25 | 4 | — | — | 5 | ±3% | 1,063 | Online | 8 |
Ipsos | March 15, 2022 | [p 48] | 38 | 24 | 28 | 4 | — | — | 5 | ±3.8% | 850 | Online | 10 |
Mainstreet Research | March 13, 2022 | [p 49] | 33.9 | 25.7 | 27.8 | 5 | — | — | 7.6 | ±3% | 1,026 | IVR | 6.1 |
Leger | February 27, 2022 | [p 50] | 39 | 27 | 27 | 3 | 2 | — | 2[lower-alpha 1] | ±3.1% | 1,001 | Online | 12 |
Mainstreet Research | January 25, 2022 | [p 51] | 34.6 | 22.4 | 27.3 | 3.5 | — | — | 12.3 | ±3% | 882 | IVR | 7.3 |
Leger | January 24, 2022 | [p 52] | 37 | 25 | 26 | 7 | 3 | — | 5[lower-alpha 2] | ±3.1% | 1,000 | Online | 11 |
Counsel | January 23, 2022 | [p 53] | 34.9 | 30.5 | 24.2 | 4.4 | — | — | 6 | ±2.1% | 2,273 | Online | 4.4 |
EKOS | January 17, 2022 | [p 54] | 34.8 | 26.6 | 26.3 | 4.9 | — | — | 7.5 | ±3.5% | 844 | IVR | 8.2 |
Abacus Data | January 12, 2022 | [p 55] | 37 | 25 | 28 | 5 | — | — | 2.5 | ±3.1% | 1,210 | Online | 9 |
Angus Reid | January 12, 2022 | [p 56] | 33 | 36 | 19 | 4 | — | — | 8 | N/A | 909 | Online | 3 |
Innovative Research Group | January 11, 2022 | [p 57] | 35 | 22 | 36 | 5 | — | — | 2 | N/A | 428 | Online | 1 |
Mainstreet Research | January 7, 2022 | [p 58] | 30.6 | 27.0 | 27.9 | 5.5 | — | — | 9.0 | ±2.7% | 1,246 | IVR | 2.7 |
December 14, 2021 | Derek Sloan announced as the Leader of the Ontario Party | ||||||||||||
Leger | December 13, 2021 | [p 59] | 38 | 28 | 25 | 5 | 2 | — | 3 | ±3.1% | 1,000 | Online | 10 |
EKOS | November 25, 2021 | [p 60] | 32.8 | 23.1 | 28.3 | 5.2 | — | — | 10.5 | ±4.1% | 569 | IVR | 4.5 |
Innovative Research Group | November 17, 2021 | [p 61] | 34.8 | 27 | 32.6 | 3.4 | — | — | 2.2 | N/A | 1,000 | Online | 2.2 |
Leger | November 14, 2021 | [p 62] | 34 | 26 | 31 | 6 | 2 | — | 1 | ±3.1% | 1,001 | Online | 3 |
Leger | October 10, 2021 | [p 63] | 35 | 25 | 30 | 5 | — | — | 5 | ±3.1% | 1,003 | Online | 5 |
Angus Reid | October 3, 2021 | [p 64] | 34 | 32 | 25 | 4 | — | — | 5 | N/A | 910 | Online | 2 |
Angus Reid | June 7, 2021 | [p 65] | 37 | 33 | 22 | 6 | — | — | 3 | ±2% | 791 | Online | 4 |
Leger | May 23, 2021 | [p 66] | 34 | 25 | 26 | 9 | — | — | — | ±3.1% | 1,001 | Online | 8 |
Mainstreet Research | May 16, 2021 | [p 67] | 32.7 | 28.2 | 26.9 | 6.3 | — | — | 5.9 | ±3% | 958 | IVR | 4.5 |
Campaign Research | May 8, 2021 | [p 68] | 36 | 25 | 28 | 7 | — | — | 4 | ±2% | 2,009 | Online | 8 |
Innovative Research Group | May 4, 2021 | [p 69] | 32 | 22 | 36 | 8 | — | — | 2 | N/A | 481 | Online | 4 |
Abacus Data | April 21, 2021 | [p 70] | 34 | 23 | 35 | 5 | — | — | 2 | ±3.1% | 1,007 | Online | 1 |
Innovative Research Group | April 20, 2021 | [p 71] | 30 | 26 | 35 | 8 | — | — | 1 | N/A | 800 | Online | 5 |
Abacus Data | April 14, 2021 | [p 72] | 34 | 23 | 34 | 5 | — | — | 4 | ±3.5% | 817 | Online | 0 |
Innovative Research Group | April 13, 2021 | [p 73] | 32 | 24 | 33 | 8 | — | — | 2 | N/A | 704 | Online | 1 |
EKOS | April 12, 2021 | [p 74] | 34.6 | 23.5 | 29.9 | 8.9 | — | — | 3 | ±2.8% | 1,204 | IVR | 4.7 |
Campaign Research | April 6, 2021 | [p 75] | 41 | 22 | 24 | 10 | — | — | 2 | ±2.3% | 1,886 | Online | 17 |
Leger | March 22, 2021 | [p 76] | 38 | 28 | 23 | 8 | — | — | 3 | ±3.1% | 1,002 | Online | 10 |
Campaign Research | March 11, 2021 | [p 77] | 43 | 25 | 20 | 9 | — | — | 3 | ±2.7% | 1,344 | Online | 18 |
Mainstreet Research | February 16, 2021 | [p 78] | 43 | 22 | 25 | 6 | — | — | 4 | ±3.08% | 1,011 | IVR | 18 |
Campaign Research | January 31, 2021 | [p 79] | 44 | 25 | 21 | 8 | — | — | 3 | ±2.6% | 1,427 | Online | 19 |
Abacus Data | January 12, 2021 | [p 80] | 34 | 25 | 29 | 8 | — | — | 3 | ±3.48% | 793 | Online | 5 |
Mainstreet Research | December 5, 2020 | [p 81] | 46.2 | 23.4 | 19.9 | 6.2 | — | — | 4.3 | ±2.94% | 1,014 | IVR | 22.8 |
Campaign Research | December 3, 2020 | [p 82] | 45 | 20 | 24 | 8 | — | — | 5 | ±3% | 1,001 | Online | 21 |
Angus Reid | November 30, 2020 | [p 83] | 42 | 28 | 22 | 5 | — | — | 3 | N/A | 1,049 | Online | 14 |
Campaign Research | November 2, 2020 | [p 84] | 48 | 21 | 23 | 7 | — | — | 1 | ±3% | 1,118 | Online | 25 |
Abacus Data | October 30, 2020 | [p 85] | 36 | 25 | 29 | 7 | — | — | 3 | ±3.1% | 1,000 | Online | 7 |
October 12, 2020 | Jim Karahalios forms the New Blue Party | ||||||||||||
Abacus Data | October 12, 2020 | [p 86] | 36 | 29 | 26 | 6 | — | — | 2 | ±3.1% | 1,000 | Online | 7 |
Campaign Research | October 2, 2020 | [p 87] | 46 | 24 | 20 | 9 | — | — | 2 | ±3% | 1,017 | Online | 22 |
Campaign Research | September 3, 2020 | [p 88] | 48 | 22 | 24 | 6 | — | — | 2 | ±3% | 1,129 | Online | 24 |
Angus Reid | September 1, 2020 | [p 89] | 45 | 28 | 22 | 4 | — | — | 1 | ±3% | 1,026 | Online | 17 |
Campaign Research | August 13, 2020 | [p 90] | 41 | 23 | 26 | 8 | — | — | 3 | ±2% | 2,013 | Online | 15 |
Innovative Research Group | July 20, 2020 | [p 91] | 36 | 18 | 37 | 8 | — | — | 1 | N/A | 974 | Online | 1 |
Campaign Research | July 10, 2020 | [p 92] | 45 | 20 | 27 | 7 | — | — | 1 | ±3% | 1,395 | Online | 18 |
Innovative Research Group | June 23, 2020 | [p 93] | 31 | 21 | 39 | 9 | — | — | 1 | N/A | 838 | Online | 8 |
Mainstreet Research | June 7, 2020 | [p 94] | 41.8 | 23.0 | 27.7 | 5.5 | — | — | 2.0 | ±3% | 1,068 | IVR | 14.1 |
Campaign Research | June 2, 2020 | [p 95] | 44 | 22 | 27 | 6 | — | — | 2 | ±2.5% | 1,512 | Online | 17 |
Innovative Research Group | June 1, 2020 | [p 96] | 33 | 20 | 38 | 9 | — | — | 0 | N/A | 698 | Online | 5 |
Angus Reid | May 24, 2020 | [p 97] | 43 | 26 | 25 | 6 | — | — | 1 | N/A | 1,061 | Online | 17 |
Abacus Data | May 22, 2020 | [p 98] | 36 | 19 | 38 | 5 | — | — | 2 | ±4.1% | 597 | Online | 2 |
Innovative Research Group | May 5, 2020 | [p 99] | 34 | 18 | 39 | 7 | — | — | 1 | N/A | 791 | Online | 5 |
EKOS | March 26, 2020 | [p 100] | 31.5 | 17.9 | 40.4 | 7.1 | — | — | 3.1 | ±3.5% | 774 | IVR | 8.9 |
Mainstreet Research | March 20, 2020 | [p 101] | 33.1 | 23.2 | 33.0 | 6.9 | — | — | 3.8 | ±2.73% | 1,017 | IVR | 0.1 |
7 March 2020 | Steven Del Duca is elected as leader of the Ontario Liberal Party | ||||||||||||
Campaign Research | March 5, 2020 | [p 102] | 32 | 28 | 28 | 10 | — | — | 2 | ±2.9% | 1,144 | Online | 4 |
Angus Reid | February 28, 2020 | [p 103] | 36 | 31 | 24 | 8 | — | — | 1 | ±3.0% | 1,051 | Online | 5 |
Campaign Research | February 26, 2020 | [p 104] | 32 | 28 | 29 | 9 | — | — | 3 | ±3.1% | 1,003 | Online | 3 |
Campaign Research | February 9, 2020 | [p 105] | 30 | 26 | 30 | 11 | — | — | 3 | ±2.5% | 1,536 | Online | 0 |
EKOS | January 19, 2020 | [p 106] | 31.1 | 21.2 | 36.2 | 9.1 | — | — | 2.3 | ±3.9% | 634 | IVR | 5.1 |
Pollara | January 11, 2020 | [p 107] | 29 | 27 | 33 | 9 | — | — | 2 | ±2.1% | 2,198 | Online | 4 |
EKOS | December 10, 2019 | [p 108] | 29.9 | 24.4 | 32.4 | 9.4 | — | — | 3.9 | ±3.4% | 811 | IVR | 2.5 |
Campaign Research | September 9, 2019 | [p 109] | 32 | 27 | 28 | 11 | — | — | 2 | ±3.17% | 957 | Online | 4 |
Corbett Communications | August 16, 2019 | [p 110] | 30 | 28 | 30 | 11 | — | — | 2 | ±3.0% | 1,099 | Online | 0 |
Corbett Communications | July 10, 2019 | [p 111] | 28 | 26 | 28 | 15 | — | — | 3 | ±3.0% | 936 | Online | 0 |
Corbett Communications | June 6, 2019 | [p 112] | 32 | 27 | 26 | 13 | — | — | 1 | ±3.0% | 1,555 | Online | 5 |
Mainstreet Research | May 22, 2019 | [p 113] | 22.4 | 24.2 | 39.9 | 11.7 | — | — | 1.8 | ±3.1% | 996 | IVR | 15.7 |
Ipsos | May 21, 2019 | [p 114] | 30 | 29 | 32 | — | — | — | 10 | ±3.5% | 1,000 | Online | 2 |
Corbett Communications | May 3, 2019 | [p 115] | 35 | 25 | 27 | 12 | — | — | 1 | ±2.4% | 1,836 | Online | 8 |
Pollara | May 1, 2019 | [p 116] | 30 | 31 | 26 | 11 | — | — | 1 | ±2.5% | 1,527 | Online | 1 |
Mainstreet Research | March 22, 2019 | [p 117] | 34.4 | 26.6 | 26.0 | 9.4 | — | — | 3.6 | ±2.73% | 1,290 | IVR | 7.8 |
Innovative Research Group | January 24, 2019 | [p 118] | 33 | 23 | 36 | 7 | — | — | 1 | 751 | Online | 3 | |
Mainstreet Research | January 17, 2019 | [p 119] | 41.4 | 27.0 | 22.6 | 7.0 | — | — | 2.2 | ±2.92% | 1,127 | IVR | 14.4 |
EKOS | December 3, 2018 | [p 120] | 34.3 | 26.1 | 28.0 | 9.4 | — | — | 2.3 | ±3.1% | 1,025 | IVR | 6.3 |
Campaign Research | November 9, 2018 | [p 121] | 34 | 25 | 32 | 7 | — | — | 2 | ±2.3% | 1,830 | Online | 2 |
Mainstreet Research | November 7, 2018 | [p 122] | 42.2 | 26.5 | 21.3 | 6.4 | — | — | 3.5 | ±2.79% | 1,229 | IVR | 15.7 |
Innovative Research Group | October 28, 2018 | [p 123] | 35 | 25 | 32 | 7 | — | — | 1 | 1,628 | Online | 3 | |
Abacus Data | October 1, 2018 | [p 124] | 36 | 29 | 24 | 8 | — | — | 3 | 1,500 | Online | 7 | |
Mainstreet Research | July 17, 2018 | [p 125] | 41.7 | 27.8 | 21.3 | 6.7 | — | — | 2.5 | ±2.27% | 1,861 | IVR | 13.9 |
29 June 2018 | Doug Ford is sworn in as Premier of Ontario | ||||||||||||
Innovative Research Group | June 21, 2018 | [p 118] | 37 | 36 | 19 | 7 | — | — | 2 | ±4.0% | 607 | Telephone | 1 |
14 June 2018 | John Fraser becomes interim leader of the Ontario Liberal Party | ||||||||||||
7 June 2018 | Kathleen Wynne resigns as leader of the Ontario Liberal Party | ||||||||||||
2018 election | June 7, 2018 | N/A | 40.50 | 33.56 | 19.59 | 4.60 | — | 0.04 | 1.74 | N/A | 5,744,860 | N/A | 6.94 |
Polling firm | Last date of polling |
Source | Margin of error | Sample size | Polling type | Lead | |||||||
PC | NDP | Liberal | Green | New Blue | Ontario | Other |
Notes
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Results
Despite only posting a marginal increase in the popular vote, the Progressive Conservative Party won with an increased parliamentary majority.[173]
PC gains came primarily at the expense of the New Democratic Party, who lost significant vote share primarily to the Liberal Party. Nevertheless, the NDP maintained their role as official opposition by a large margin. Although she won her seat, Andrea Horwath resigned as leader of the NDP.[174]
Despite edging out the NDP for second place in the popular vote, the Liberals only gained one seat and failed to regain official party status. After failing to win in his own riding, Liberal leader Steven Del Duca also announced his resignation as party leader.[175]
The only two candidates outside the three largest parties to be elected were Green Party leader Mike Schreiner and independent candidate Bobbi Ann Brady, who prior to the election was the executive assistant to the retiring PC MPP in her riding.
As of 19:30 GMT on 3 June, the full unofficial results are as follows:[176][177]
83 | 31 | 8 | 1 | 1 |
Progressive Conservative | New Democratic | Liberal | G | I |
Party | Votes | Seats | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Progressive Conservative | 1,912,057 |
40.82%
|
![]() |
83 / 124 (67%)
|
|
New Democratic | 1,111,923 |
23.74%
|
![]() |
31 / 124 (25%)
|
|
Liberal | 1,116,961 |
23.85%
|
![]() |
8 / 124 (6%)
|
|
Green | 279,152 |
5.96%
|
![]() |
1 / 124 (0.8%)
|
|
Independent[lower-alpha 3] | 25,334 |
0.54%
|
![]() |
1 / 124 (0.8%)
|
Notes
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Incumbent MPPs who were defeated
- Gilles Bisson (NDP)
- Faisal Hassan (NDP)
- Belinda Karahalios (New Blue, formerly PC)
- Judith Monteith-Farrell (NDP)
- Paul Miller (Independent, formerly NDP)
- Rick Nicholls (Ontario Party, formerly PC)
- Jeremy Roberts (PC)
- Amanda Simard (Liberal)
- Gurratan Singh (NDP)
- Sara Singh (NDP)
References
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Opinion poll sources
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External links
- ↑ Cite error: Invalid
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- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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- ↑ 75.00 75.01 75.02 75.03 75.04 75.05 75.06 75.07 75.08 75.09 75.10 75.11 75.12 75.13 75.14 75.15 75.16 75.17 75.18 75.19 75.20 75.21 75.22 75.23 https://ontarioliberal.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Ontario-Liberal-Platform.pdf[bare URL PDF]
- ↑ 76.00 76.01 76.02 76.03 76.04 76.05 76.06 76.07 76.08 76.09 76.10 76.11 76.12 76.13 76.14 76.15 76.16 76.17 76.18 76.19 76.20 76.21 76.22 76.23 76.24 76.25 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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